Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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149
FXUS61 KRLX 211944
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
244 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm Monday and then strong cold front crosses Monday night with
widespread rainfall. Cooler and windy behind the front. Mid level
waves pass through mid week, but turning warmer again late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Warm front will drift to our north by early Monday morning and
pull any light rain to the north with it. We will be well within
the stable warm sector tomorrow and forecast soundings are
pretty dry with may just some cirrus across the region. Current
thinking as that we will at least see filtered sunshine and with
the strong SW return flow, temperatures will soar by Monday
afternoon. Have bumped highs up a few degrees from previous
forecast, with most of the area in the upper 60s to possibly 70
degrees. Clouds and precip chances will increase across the Ohio
Valley late in the afternoon as cold front approaches from the
west. Models have slowed down a bit on the arrival of PoPs
across SE Ohio. Held off bringing likely PoP into our western
zones until the very end of the near term period, at around 23Z.

Also, bumped up wind gusts tomorrow afternoon. Although
strongest gusts hold off until early Tuesday morning with FROPA
and post frontal, we should still mix down some 15 to 20 mph
gusts across the Lowlands out ahead of the front for a period
tomorrow afternoon. Although models show strong forcing in the
mid to upper levels as seen in the h500 vorticity charts

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

A strong cold front passes Monday night. Models show a mature low
pressure system crossing the Great Lakes region from the
southwest, while a strong cold front trails southeast of the
low. In addition, models show h850 winds reaching 50-60 knots
ahead of the cold front. The front will arrive after dark
lacking of heating, and bouyancy, but under a high deep layered
shear environment. Therefore, the front should bring moderate
showers accompanied by strong gusty winds to produce from 0.25
to 0.50 inches of rainfall Monday night. The chances of
thunderstorms are low with this front. In fact, SPC have the
area under a general thunderstorm possible.

By Tuesday, the wrap around moisture of the cyclone could
produce some precipitation across northern portions of southeast
OH and WV. The flow turns northwest allowing moisture from Lake
Michigan to reach the area Tuesday night. It will be cold enough
for all pcpn to transition to all snow Tuesday night. Expect
light snow accumulations as the column will lack of a dendrite
growth zone.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 PM Sunday...

Models suggest a series of mid level open short waves will
cross the area from west to east by mid week. Under west to
northwest flow, moisture from Lake Michigan could continue snow
showers mainly over the northern WV, portions of southeast OH
with an upslope enhancement over our northeast mountains
Wednesday and Thursday.

Another warm up is expected as boundary layer winds return from
the southwest by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

MVFR stratus associated with a warm front is generally confined
to northern forecast area this afternoon. Can`t rule out
possible a quick rain shower or even some drizzle, but not
enough confidence to add to the TAFs at this time. Conditions
will improve by Monday morning, with VFR expected through at
least 18Z Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR stratus may vary at times today across
northern sites. Could get some fog or drizzle tonight across
the north, but fog is looking less likely with the cloud cover
expected.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR possible Monday night under rain showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MPK



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