Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 231946
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
346 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week with dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Cold front approaches
middle to end of next week. Cooler airmass to follow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 PM Sunday...
No significant changes were necessary to the forecast in the
near term period. High pressure surface and aloft remains in
control, with above normal temperatures, and dry conditions.
Expecting another cool, clear night on tap again, with areas of
fog developing, burning off by mid morning Sunday, with another
sunny and hot day on tap.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM Saturday...

High pressure and ridging remains across the Ohio Valley for the
period with well above average temperatures. Dry air aloft and
lack of major forcing will keep the region dry and mostly sunny.
Tuesday, the effects of Maria will start to be felt with a
slight chance of terrain-driven showers during the afternoon
though they will be primarily on the eastern ridgelines outside
of this CWA.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 PM Saturday...

Operational long range models remain consistent in a significant
pattern change upcoming for the end of the week. The position
and strength of Maria lingering off the Outer Banks of North
Carolina will determine the strength and timing of surface
boundaries dropping in from the northwest. At this time, an
initial cold front will approach the region on Wednesday and
struggle to pass through by Thursday morning, dropping Thursday
temperatures to near-normal.

Models are in better agreement for a more robust cold front
associated with an amplified short-wave embedded within a mean
long-wave trough to come through the area Friday night into
Saturday with greater precipitation chances and an even greater
airmass change behind it. Deep, due-northerly flow will settle
into place for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z Saturday thru 18Z Sunday...

As of 130 PM Saturday...

Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds through 06Z.
LIFR/VLIFR fog is expected to develop again after 06Z in favored
river valleys. Any fog will burn off between 13-14Z Sunday for a
return of VFR conditions with light surface winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing and restrictions may vary from
forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...SL


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