Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 261727
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
127 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching occlusion brings a wetting rain, gradually tapering
off tonight lowlands and Wednesday nearer the mountains. High
pressure brings drier conditions late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 123 PM Tuesday...

Lingering light showers continue as a weak cold front arrives to the
Middle Ohio valley early this evening. Little rain accumulations are
expected with this front. The cold front slowly exits east of the
Appalachians Wednesday evening. Surface high pressure builds from
the west providing relatively dry weather conditions later on
Wednesday. A low chance for lingering rain showers exist for
Wednesday mainly near the mountains. Although clouds could clear out
across the lowlands Wednesday night and Thursday, low level clouds
will remains over the higher elevations through the period.

A mild night is expected with about 10 degrees above normal
temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in mid 60s to mid
50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1248 PM Tuesday...

Low pressure will exit to the east Thursday and high pressure will
build back in from the west with increasing 500-mb heights. This
should allow for some gradual clearing areawide with sunshine
returning by the late morning and early afternoon hours. Thursday`s
temperatures will run on the cooler side for late March with highs
in the upper 50s across the lowlands and the lower 50s in the
mountains. Average highs for late March are generally in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1248 PM Tuesday...

Dry conditions are expected Friday, but winds will turn gusty as low
pressure strengthens off of the Atlantic coast and high pressure
expands over the Southeast, creating a strong pressure gradient over
our area. The highest threat of gusty winds remains in the higher
elevations, but the lowlands will also be quite breezy. Rain chances
will increase again Saturday as a wave of upper-level energy
approaches from the west and a stationary front drapes across the
middle Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians. From Saturday
onward, we`ll enter into an unsettled pattern with rain chances just
about each day heading into the new work week. Models currently show
a large area of low pressure tracking through the area next Tuesday,
with high pressure building behind the front by the middle of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 123 PM Tuesday...

Periods of rain showers continue lifting north across the area
as a cold front crosses slowly east through tonight. Brief
periods of MVFR/IFR conditions possible under heavier showers.
Otherwise, precipitation will fall from an upper cloud deck,
gradually lowering into MVFR/IFR ceilings mainly over the higher
elevations tonight into Wednesday morning.

Guidance suggests strong wind above 2,000 feet, mixing down
some this afternoon especially along showers. Expect winds to
subside this evening and tonight, as the atmosphere tries to
decouple. This will allow for LLWS to occur at times at least
across the middle Ohio Valley.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Winds will fluctuate. Brief MVFR
visibility and perhaps ceiling are possible through this
evening. Timing of MVFR ceilings tonight may vary, and there is
a chance MVFR mist to form.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    M    H    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible early Thursday morning in and near
the mountains with low stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...TRM

FIRE WEATHER...


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