351
FXUS61 KRLX 081749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
149 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and storms continue, with the
frequency of storms posing concern for localized flooding.
Severe storms are possible tonight and again Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 146 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

 * Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning.

 * After a lull in activity this afternoon, strong to severe
   storms return this evening into Thursday morning.

 * A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms remains in place
   into Thursday morning, with some storms having the potential
   for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours.

Minor changes noted to the forecast. Stationary frontal boundary
oscillates south to north through tonight, while a strong mid level
shortwave ride overhead, providing extra forcing to sustain strong
to severe convection. Although SPC has removed the enhanced and
slight risks for severe weather across our south, it maintains
a marginal risk for severe storms over most of the area through
Thursday morning. Storms will have the potential for damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours.

Hi-res CAMs show a lull in convective activity this afternoon,
becoming active this evening and tonight. Models show another lull
in activity with showers and thunderstorms returning around
midnight, and again from the west during the predawn hours Thursday
morning.

Localized flooding remains a concern as antecedent precipitation has
lowered 1 hour FFG to 0.75-1.25 inches particularity across the
Ohio River Valley and across southwest Virginia. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning for portions of
the Middle OHio valley, northeast KY and central and southern
WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Wednesday...

This period starts off with a surface low along the western
flank of our CWA border. This feature will have already lifted
a warm frontal boundary north of our area while we remain in the
warm sector with ongoing shower and storm activity. By this
time frame, during the late morning to early afternoon,
instability will be lacking and there will even be a small cap
along with some low to modest shear. Severe potential will be
slim, however with high DCAPE values, long skinny CAPE and super
saturated low to even upper levels, flooding with be the main
threat, not to mention just over 1.5 inches of PWAT values.

The flood watch will be already inched into this period and
will likely be extended further into this period for the rest of
Thursday which is a good idea due to the aforementioned weather
parameters in place. An excessive rainfall threat will
accompany Thursday as well covering almost our entire CWA with
a marginal threat insinuating any thunderstorm will be capable
of producing heavy showers which may promote some localized and
isolated flash flooding issues, hence the main threat.

Not too far behind is the forecast cold front which is slated to
move through by 0Z which will then filter in drier air tapering
off activity for the late afternoon and evening. There will be
chances for showers on the table still due to wrap around flow
from the surface low although no thunderstorm activity should
take place. This will go on through Friday as an upper level
trough rides in right behind the surface low and keeps unsettled
weather on the table for us.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1215 PM Wednesday...

Somewhat cooler conditions can be expected for the period, even
on Sunday, as a drier northwesterly flow remains over the area.
Overnight low temperatures could even dip into the upper 30s
across parts of the mountains Sunday morning. Warmer and dry
conditions can be expected for Monday with high pressure,
surface and aloft, briefly in control. Weather becomes very
unsettled again Tuesday onward, as a low in the southern stream
approaches the area. Periods of rain, possibly heavy at times
can be expected, and the period will need to be monitored for
potential water issues.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Wednesday...

Diurnal convection has moved south of the area this afternoon,
leaving the area rain free under widespread VFR conditions.
Afternoon breezes gusting up to 18 knots will be possible across
most sites through at least 23Z.

Conditions will remain VFR until the next round of showers and
storms move over the area from the west around 02Z, spreading
east to affect most terminals with mainly MVFR ceilings through
early Thursday morning. Brief periods of IFR conditions will be
possible overnight under showers and storms.

Winds 10 knots or less, gusting up to 18 knots will prevail this
afternoon. Then, winds become light and variable, outside of
convection after 00Z tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection may vary from
forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions at times in showers and thunderstorms into
Thursday, and in fog and stratus Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for WVZ005>009-013>017-
     024>026-033-034.
OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ075-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MEK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ