435
AGUS76 KRSA 241506
HMDRSA

Hydrometeorological Discussion
National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA
710 AM PST Sat Jan 24 2026

...SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN TODAY COASTAL SOCAL AND SRN/ERN NV...
...DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WEST COAST...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SAT AM - FRI AM)...

The weekend begins with the ever slow moving upr low crossing the
Baja peninsula...on its way to the east-northeast toward the
southern Plains states. At the same time...a weak disturbance is
dropping southeast through the Great Basin before it curves toward
the east and also makes its way across the souther tier of the
nation. These two features will once again generate some rather
scattered light shower activity over coastal southern CA and
southern/eastern NV. Precip totals will remain less than 0.10-inch
through Saturday.

The rest of the weekend sees an offshore upr ridge that is currently
over the eastern Pacific between 130W and 140W shifting toward the
west coast...while a weak disturbance moves over the top of this
feature toward the Pacific Northwest. This will bring a dry Sunday
into the early portion of next week as the upr ridge slowly moves
across the western US Monday into Tuesday.

As the middle of next week arrives...the overall weather pattern
becomes a bit difficult to forecast with the overnight models not
providing much clarity. The 24/00Z GFS more quickly brings an open
wave across the Pacific Northwest and northern CA on Wednesday
morning...weakening it as the s/wv trof moves inland. The 24/06Z GFS
is even less impressive with this system basically falling apart as
it reaches the north coast. Then looking at the 24/00Z EC...the s/wv
trof holds together better and is slower with its arrival along the
northern/central CA coast before weakening as it shifts inland.
Finally...there is the 24/00Z CMC that forms a cutoff low generally
west of Point Conception and spreads precip along coastal southern
CA as the circulation makes its way to the southeast before moving
inland near the CA/MX border. As a result...not much confidence in
how the overall pattern will end up for the middle of the week and
beyond. For now...kept precip limited to Wednesday with the best
totals (0.25-inch or less) along coastal areas between the CA/OR
border and the Big Sur coast with lighter amounts (near or less than
0.10-inch) inland from the Shasta Lake drainage down the Sacramento
Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley. Overall...however this
system does end up playing out across the west coast...it does not
look to be too impactful.


Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated.
Please refer to the following product issued by the CNRFC
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/Daily-Briefing for a graphical summary of
weather and hydrologic conditions.

QPF graphics are available at www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/qpf.php



DRK

$$