National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KABQ 141714 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1114 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 132 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A weak upper level ridge of high pressure will continue to slide
to the east of the Rockies today with warmer than normal
temperatures, and breezy and dry conditions. The weather will turn
abruptly windy and cooler on Monday as a low pressure system and
cold front sweep across New Mexico. A few light rain and snow
showers will even struggle to develop over the northern areas of
the state Monday and Monday night, but the stout southwest winds
will be the bigger impact with many areas observing gusts of 45 to
55 mph and locally up to 65 mph in the south central high
country. Drier conditions in portions of central New Mexico and
most eastern areas of the state will also be present on Monday,
leading to the potential for rapid fire spread with the gusty
winds. Winds will shift more northwesterly on Tuesday, remaining
very strong and gusty with dry conditions and near to slightly
above average temperatures. Conditions will be breezy on Wednesday
with a cold front expected to lower temperatures by a few degrees
late in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 132 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A well organized 543dm H5 upper low just offshore the San Francisco
Bay area this morning is sporting a stout 100kt 250mb speed max over
southern CA. Ahead of it is a dry-slot associated with a segment of
the sub-tropical jet over AZ and NM. Sunny skies and a breezy
afternoon will result over the forecast area today. Many lower
elevation areas will again flirt with the 80F mark for high
temperatures with Roswell reaching back toward the 90F mark. The
upper low will come ashore and progress eastward tonight into Monday
morning, pushing the aforementioned 100kt speedmax over the desert
southwest. Strong southwesterly winds aloft are still expected to
begin threatening high winds over the south-central mountains early
Monday morning. Peak gusts of 50-55kts will be possible along the
south-central mountains and adjacent highlands, lasting through
Monday afternoon. The High Wind Watch is upgraded to a High Wind
Warning for this area as a result. Vertical mixing, combined with a
sharpening surface pressure gradient in response to a 986mb MLSP
surface low over northeastern CO will spread these strong winds to
the southwestern mountains, Sandia/Manzano Mtns and nearby highlands,
northeastern highlands and east-central plains including Chaves
County where new Wind Advisories have been hoisted for Monday
afternoon and evening. Many western and central areas will see a
sharp cool down associated with the Pacific cold front. A few
light showers will reach northwestern and north-central areas
Monday afternoon and evening. Thereafter, a secondary upper level
speedmax on the back side of the upper low is expected to bring
strong northwesterly winds to areas along and immediately east of
the central mountain chain Monday night through Tuesday to start
the Long Term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 132 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The upper low will move into western KS Monday night, but as
alluded to above, the northwesterly winds will remain very strong
on the backside. A broad area of 45-55 kt is modeled at 700 mb
through the night, and even though the surface low will be
preceding the upper level feature, the left behind gradient will
still be substantial. Many locations will likely have a difficult
time fully decoupling, and highland areas will definitely remain
gusty overnight. Still, the speeds may reduce enough for a brief
cessation of wind highlights overnight, only for a fresh batch to
be reissued during the day Tuesday. Winds aloft will gradually
reduce (700 mb speeds dropping to 35 to 45 kt by late Tuesday
afternoon), but a new surface low developing in far northeast NM
will still keep a significant gradient overlaying the state.
Central highlands areas (Torrance/Guadalupe counties) could even
need another High Wind Warning concentrating on the late morning
and early afternoon hours Tuesday. Otherwise dry conditions will
prevail despite shortwave energy continuing to drop into the area,
and temperatures in western zones will actually warm considerably
(by 5 to almost 10 degrees) due to rising heights.

Trailing shortwave energy will shift southeast of NM into late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, leaving behind a weaker, but
still stiff, westerly flow aloft. Yet another lee-side surface low
will establish itself over southeastern CO, and widespread breezy
to scattered areas of windy conditions are forecast Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures would escalate another 5 to 10 degrees in
all zones. Outside of the NM purview, a very deep (~537 dam) low
will be crossing into Saskatchewan and Manitoba as the polar jet
dives into the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains on
Wednesday.

By Thursday the Canadian low will be moving toward southwestern
Ontario, sending a cold front down the plains and likely into
northeastern NM. Several degrees of cooling will be in store for
far northeastern NM Thursday, but western and central zones should
actually keep warming another 1 to 3 degrees. The front appears to
be void of sufficient moisture and/or moisture convergence for
appreciable precipitation Thursday, but a blanket of low stratus
clouds is looking more likely for the eastern half of NM into
Thursday night and Friday morning as a more upslope easterly
component is gained. The cooler air mass will keep temperatures
just slightly below average Friday in eastern zones with winds
veering through the afternoon. However, a reinforcement of the
surface high over the Great Plains and a return flow off of the
Gulf of Mexico could mesh, leading to more moisture for areas of
drizzle and even showers and thunderstorms where surface
convergence is strongest Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1102 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions prevail areawide through Monday morning. West and
southwest winds increase somewhat today, peaking during the late
afternoon with gusts to near 30 kt possible at KGUP and KLVS.
Winds aloft increase overnight with widespread strong to very
strong and gusty west and southwest winds developing for most
locations near to several hours after sunrise Monday. These strong
winds could result in patchy blowing dust and visibility
restrictions for the KROW terminal Monday afternoon as southwest
winds are progged to gust to near 45 kt. The strong winds start to
gradually subside toward sunset Monday but are forecast to remain
brisk to locally strong Monday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 AM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER MONDAY CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM...

Warm, dry, and breezy to locally windy southwest flow will result in
elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon.
These conditions amplify considerably Monday afternoon with the
arrival of a strong but mostly dry storm system. Southwest winds
with widespread gusts to 35 to 55 mph, peaking to 60 to 70 mph
through the south-central highlands and mountains will combine with
abysmally dry single-digit humidity to produce widespread critical
fire weather conditions. Extreme to historical critical fire
weather will result in some areas of the highlands and eastern
plains as well. The Red Flag Warning has been left in-tact for
Monday as a result. These winds taper off some but not entirely,
shifting out of the northwest Monday night. The strongest winds
will shift their focus over and immediately east of the central
mountain chain late Monday night through Tuesday morning before
truly ending late Tuesday. Despite a cool down behind a cold
front, MinRH will still be critically low Tuesday allowing for
another round of critical fire weather through the eastern plains.
The Fire Weather Watch for Tuesday is still on track as a result.

Calmer weather returns Wednesday, but is not calm enough to
totally subdue fire weather concerns. Breezy to locally windy
westerly to southwesterly winds will reach most areas, and will
combine with critically low MinRH in the afternoon for another
potential critical fire weather day for the northeastern highlands
and plains zones Wednesday afternoon. A cold front then backs
into northeastern NM Thursday, advancing through all of eastern NM
by Friday. This will cool temperatures and help increase MinRH
above critical levels to end the work week. Dry, warm and breezy
conditions continue for western areas and the Rio Grande Valley.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  75  39  60  36 /   0   5   5  10
Dulce...........................  71  31  59  28 /   0   0  10  20
Cuba............................  71  35  58  33 /   0   0  10  10
Gallup..........................  72  31  57  28 /   0   0   5   5
El Morro........................  69  31  54  29 /   0   0   5   5
Grants..........................  74  31  59  31 /   0   0   0   5
Quemado.........................  71  34  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  74  43  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  69  37  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  74  32  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  77  42  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  66  30  54  25 /   0   0  10  20
Los Alamos......................  70  43  59  37 /   0   0   5  10
Pecos...........................  71  41  61  34 /   0   0   0  10
Cerro/Questa....................  66  44  56  33 /   0   0   0  20
Red River.......................  64  32  53  25 /   0   0   5  20
Angel Fire......................  64  29  54  27 /   0   0   0  10
Taos............................  71  34  62  29 /   0   0   0  10
Mora............................  73  39  61  33 /   0   0   0  10
Espanola........................  77  39  68  36 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  71  44  62  36 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  74  42  65  34 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  77  49  68  41 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  79  46  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  81  42  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  79  46  69  41 /   0   0   0   5
Belen...........................  82  39  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  79  45  70  40 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  81  39  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  80  45  71  40 /   0   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  81  39  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  74  47  65  40 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  79  46  69  41 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  83  47  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  69  45  60  38 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  72  44  64  38 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  74  41  66  37 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  75  37  68  37 /   0   0   0   5
Clines Corners..................  71  39  64  34 /   0   0   0   5
Mountainair.....................  73  42  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  72  43  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  77  52  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  69  49  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  75  42  68  34 /   0   0   0  10
Raton...........................  77  37  69  34 /   0   0   0  10
Springer........................  78  37  71  38 /   0   0   0  10
Las Vegas.......................  74  42  65  37 /   0   0   0  10
Clayton.........................  82  48  77  43 /   0   0   0  10
Roy.............................  78  46  72  41 /   0   0   0   5
Conchas.........................  85  48  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  81  47  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  84  47  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  84  52  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  85  52  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  84  49  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  90  55  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  82  51  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  81  52  75  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ104-106-
123>126.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
for NMZ104-125-126.

Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ208-220>223-
227>229.

High Wind Warning from 6 AM Monday to midnight MDT Monday night
for NMZ224>226-239-240.

Wind Advisory from noon Monday to midnight MDT Monday night for
NMZ233>238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...33