Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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103 FXUS65 KABQ 301948 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 148 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Picture perfect Spring weather today gives way to increasing winds and very dry conditions Wednesday. Critical fire weather will result, focused through the eastern plains and Upper Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures cool a tad Thursday, and moreso across eastern NM by Friday. Friday morning lows dip to near or below freezing for many western and northern locations. This could include Farmington which will be past its average last freeze date. Additional moisture entering eastern NM will increase the chances for afternoon thunderstorms across east-central NM by Saturday. Some of this convection could become severe late Saturday. Dry and windier weather is favored Sunday and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Very pleasant weather in place today, highlighted by not a cloud in the sky, will give way to a more typical New Mexico Spring time setup Wednesday. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will be realized as breezy to windy conditions gusting 25 to 35 mph Wednesday afternoon. Critical fire weather results from the combination of these winds with dry, warm and unstable conditions. Daytime highs will be 5F to 15F above normal, with 60s and 70s in the mountains, 80s in valley locations, and 90+ at Tucumcari and Roswell. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Thursday begins the long term period with a decrease in wind speeds and a notable cool down entering northeastern and east- central NM from a cold front backing into the state from CO. This front advances further south and west to the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Low clouds and isolated fog will be possible in portions of the northeast highlands Friday morning. Meanwhile, forecast low temperatures have trended a bit warmer and with mid to upper 30s now forecast at Farmington. The aforementioned frontal boundary across eastern NM gets pushed back east toward TX Friday afternoon, but only briefly. Another backdoor front brings a secondary surge of moisture down from CO into northeastern NM, while southerly return flow brings increasing Gulf moisture from western TX into southeastern NM. Numerical model guidance continues to advertise these two airmasses meeting with a convergent surface boundary setting up near the I-40 corridor. Convective initiation will favor this convergent boundary Saturday afternoon with an initial singular storm mode tracking east toward the TX line by the evening hours. There is notable uncertainty regarding the potential for severe weather from these storms however. Ensemble model guidance from the GFS favors a deepening upper low entering the PacNW that would in turn favor a westward placement of the dryline over NM, whereas the ensemble suite from the ECMWF favors a eastward placement of the dryline toward TX that would lower the risk of severe weather in NM. Interested parties in east-central NM should stay apprised of the latest forecast thinking regarding the potential for severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening as a result. Late evening and overnight convection could also be possible in eastern NM Saturday night from outflow boundaries kicking back west. After one more morning of the moisture boundary swashing back up to the east slopes of the central mountain chain Sunday morning, increasing dry, warm and windy southwesterly flow will push this boundary back toward TX Sunday afternoon. Forecast certainty plummets by this point and beyond. The GFS suite is more amplified with the development and deepening of an upper low diving down into the Great Basin and desert southwest from the PacNW by this time, compared to the less amplified and more progressive ECMWF suite. The GFS scenario would favor dry, warm and strong southwesterly winds filling in across NM with less wind potential in the ECMWF scenario. Which scenario wins out will depend on the strength and progression of the East Asian Jet crossing the northern Pacific in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 VFR with widespread skc prevails through the TAF period. Breezy to locally windy westerly to southwesterly winds peak this afternoon with gusts of 15 to 25 kts at most terminals. Winds decouple and taper off overnight again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... Pleasant weather today gives way to widespread critical fire weather across eastern NM and the Upper Rio Grande Valley Wednesday. An approaching upper level storm system will bring increasing dry, warm and windy southwesterly flow. Peak gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be possible, especially across the eastern plains. Most locations in the forecast area will see relative humidity fall to the low teens and single digits, but the stronger winds reaching critical thresholds will focus in eastern NM and the Upper Rio Grande Valley. Elevated to locally critical fire weather will be possible elsewhere in central and western NM. These winds subside during the evening as humidity recovers some, bringing an end to the critical fire weather. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning as a result. Thursday sees slightly lower temperatures and wind speeds, but locally critical fire weather conditions will be possible in the Upper Rio Grande Valley again where the winds are strongest. A cold front stalled across northeastern NM Thursday spreads through all of eastern NM Friday bringing cooler temperatures, increased humidity and a northeasterly wind shift that brings an end to critical fire weather concerns across eastern NM. It also brings poor ventilation Friday for eastern NM. While drier and relatively warmer weather remains across central and western NM, the additional moisture will allow for afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity through east-central NM Saturday. Another round of critical fire weather will be possible across western and central NM Sunday and into early next week with dry, warm and windy southwesterly flow returning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 42 76 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 32 72 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 40 72 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 35 73 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 38 69 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 75 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 39 73 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 47 77 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 42 72 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 77 34 76 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 46 80 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 34 66 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 47 72 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 45 72 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 66 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 35 63 33 60 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 32 66 30 61 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 36 73 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 40 72 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 42 80 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 47 74 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 77 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 81 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 49 82 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 44 84 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 50 82 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 41 85 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 48 83 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 40 84 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 49 84 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 40 84 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 50 78 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 82 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 50 87 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 49 72 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 47 76 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 43 77 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 37 78 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 42 75 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 44 76 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 45 77 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 51 81 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 46 73 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 39 77 38 67 / 0 0 0 5 Raton........................... 38 79 38 72 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 38 81 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 42 76 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 45 82 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 43 81 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 45 89 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 45 87 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 47 90 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 51 88 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 48 90 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 47 91 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 54 94 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 50 86 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 48 82 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for NMZ104-121- 123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...24