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000
FXUS63 KABR 100528 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1228 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions return Wednesday afternoon over central SD
  (gusts 30-45kts), and Thursday across the entire forecast area
  (gusts 25 to near 40kts) out of the northwest.

- A disturbance will generate a chance (40-50%) for afternoon
  showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.

- Above normal high temperatures continue into early next week,
  highest Friday through Sunday (around 20 degrees above normal).

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

The forecast remains on track this evening. No major changes are
planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A split upper flow pattern continues over the CONUS for the short
term. Meanwhile, for tonight it`ll remain relatively tranquil under
northwest flow aloft. However, energy will dig toward the region for
Wednesday. That energy and steep afternoon lapse rates will lead to
MUCAPEs up to 500 j/kg with daytime heating. Thus fully expect sct
afternoon convection, that`ll likely last into the evening and maybe
even overnight hours. With deep mixing expect mild temperatures and
strong, gusty winds due to some CAA. Normally I`d push temps up a
notch given the deep mixing, but with the CAA setting in, might be
tough to reach NBM forecast highs. For now won`t stray too far from
guidance given the uncertainty. Winds will become gusty in the
afternoon as the linkup occurs due to boundary layer heating.
Strongest winds should be over and west of the Missouri valley.
Thursday may also prove somewhat windy.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Winds will be the main concern over the long term, particularly on
Thursday. By 12Z Thursday we`ll be under a tight pressure gradient
between strong high pressure over UT/MT/WY/CO and 2 areas of low
pressure across IN and Ontario. Inverted v type of sounding
Thursday, with plenty of dry air near the surface and above 700mb.
Winds above 600mb will be 60-70kts midday Thursday. Despite the
mixing, cooler air will remain overhead. 850mb temperatures will
range from around -2 to +4C by the end of the day Thursday (lowest
over MN/closest to the 500mb trough deepening across MN). Clouds and
even a 20% chance of afternoon showers are possible Thursday. Even
though highs will be only in the 50s, they will still be around 5
degrees above normal for this time of year. Grassland Fire Danger
Index values will be higher Thursday afternoon, particularly over
central SD as dew points fall into the 20 degree range and relative
humidity falls to 20-30%. Recent precipitation of 0.25 to nearly 1"
over the last 3 days (highest near the ND/SD border from McPherson
County east) has helped some areas start the green up process,
particularly near and south of Redfield. We`ll continue to green up
over the next few weeks. At this point the peak winds Thursday look
to be more focused on the higher elevations of eastern SD
- the Prairie Coteau, with gusts of 30-near 40kts.

Winds will quickly diminish west to east Thursday night as the
surface ridge builds across the Plains States. The 500mb ridge
Thursday into Saturday. The ridge will become suppressed slightly
Saturday into Sunday, but rebound in advance of a larger low moving
into the southwestern U.S. There is some disagreement on if flow
stays more zonal (22% of solutions) or if a ridge wins out (78% of
solutions). Either way, well above normal temperatures will remain.
There is a 10 degree spread in the NBM 25-75 percentiles by Sunday,
indicating that confidence is low on specifics by that time. Still,
highs in the 70s look reasonable Saturday through Monday (even some
low 80s). Temperatures will lower early next week as the western
trough slides across the central U.S. Even with the uncertainty, the
20-50% chance of rain Monday and Tuesday look reasonable given a
surface low tracing across the Central to Northern Plains. Specifics
will be fine tuned as the time nears, including any chances for
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the day Wednesday. Rain
showers may move over the TAF sites after 21Z. Across central
South Dakota, west winds will increase into the 15 to 30 knot
range in the morning, then will shift to the northwest behind a
passing front in the afternoon before diminishing in the evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM
     CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-015-033-045-048.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Parkin