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000
FXAK69 PAFG 091241
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
441 AM AKDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm will roll into the West Coast and bring heavy snow
and blowing snow to large swaths of the coast, with the heaviest
snowfall looking to occur around Norton Sound, the Nulato Hills,
and south facing slopes of the Western Brooks Range. Snow and wind
will shift into the Western Interior with chinook winds then
developing across the Brooks Range and Alaska Range Wednesday into
Thursday. Elevated water levels of 2 to 4 feet will also push
across the YK Delta to Norton Sound and to the Bering Strait.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is a 478 arctic low near the North Pole with a strong lobe
of virticity snipping off it, now over the Alaska Peninsula, with
heights of that feature around 502 dam. That strong low brought
the recent cold snap with blowing snow over the West Coast. A
strong ridge is in place over the NPAC near the W Aleutian Islands
with a subtropical moisture stream moving north overtop that
ridge. At the surface the main low feature is a 993 mb low over
Cook Inlet with a 1020 mb high over the N Slope. The incoming
storm is currently deepening over the Sea of Okhotsk.

Model Discussion...
After days of complete model uncertainty and massive model changes
every single run, the numerical weather models have finally
settled down and overall impacts are much more certain. A gale
force front is projected to move into the Bering Strait and Norton
Sound tonight and Wednesday morning, with that low around 985 mb
as it moves north of Saint Lawrence Island. A trailing low will
move across Saint Lawrence Island as a 970 mb low Wednesday night
and then move to Kotzebue Sound at 976 mb, then to near Utqiagvik
at 978 mb Thu evening. That low is about -4.0 sigma SD, and from a
return interval perspective, is about as strong as it gets this
time of year. We favored a NAM nest to NAM blend for the winds as
this storm rips through, with a blend of all models for precip and
snow. We expect widespread gales out west and areas of significant
snowfall and blowing and drifting snow, with high winds across the
AK Range and Brooks Range.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Spotty snow showers continue today but will be more co-located
with higher terrain, with a skiff of snow possible. Otherwise,
drier with fairly nice and sunny skies for Wednesday with temps
shooting back into the 40s. A strong Chinook wind will develop
Wednesday afternoon across the AK Range and ramp up overnight.
With an expected gradient of 11-15 mb we expect winds to rip into
the high wind range of 80+ across the Alaska Range, thus we will
be issuing high wind warnings with this package. Moderate snow
will fall across the southern slopes of the Alaska Range Thursday
and may require winter weather advisories as we get closer. For
the Interior, it will also get windy on Thursday with gusty south
winds 15 to 25 mph. Snow moves into the Central Interior and
higher elevation Hills as early as Wed night but the bulk of it
comes Thu with 2 to 5 inches possible for the White Mtns and the
the highway summits. Heavy snow will fall over the S Brooks Range
with 6 to 12 inches for Coldfoot. The S Interior will mostly be
downsloped but a skiff of snow is possible Thu night as the AK
Range pressure gradient weakens.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong Bering low will push a front into the West Coast Tthis
evening and tonight then shift inland Wendnesday. A second low
moves into the Bering Strait and then Chukchi coast Wednesday
night into Thursday. Right now the strongest core of winds looks
to be from the Bering Strait north with southeast gusts to 60 mph.
Farther south across Norton Sound to the YK, southeast gusts as
high as 45 to 50 mph are likely. Further west over Saint Lawrence
Island, it looks slightly less windy, with southeast gusts to 45
mph. Heavy snow will blanket most of the West Coast with 6 to 15
inches for the Seward Peninsula, 5 to 9 inches for the YK Delta
and Lower Yukon, and 4 to 10 inches for the Yukon Valley, with 12
to 20 inches for the W Brooks Range. 5 to 7 inches is expected for
Saint Lawrence Island with 2 to 4 inches for the N Seward
Peninsula to Point Hope and into the Selawik Valley. This snow
will also blow significantly with a lot of drifting snowfall. We
will be issuing blizzard warnings for the Bering Strait and YK
Delta with several winter storm warnings for heavy snow and
blowing snow. We will issue winter weather advisories for the
Kotzebue to Kivalina to Point Hope corridor.

In addition, elevated water levels of 2 to 4 feet will move into
the YK Delta and Norton Sound, which may cause water over ice to
occur, and may break up some of the shorefast ice. This will occur
Wednesday and Thursday, peaking Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
High pressure settled in tonight and cold temps persist today
and then attention turns to a major winter storm moving to the
West Coast Wednesday and Thursday. This storm will bring heavy
snowfall to the S Brooks Range with 6 to 15 inches of snow Wed
through Thu along with crest winds of 60+ mph. Chinook winds will
develop on the N side of the Brooks Range with gusty south winds
and blowing snow to 35 mph. Point Hope will see the worst
conditions with southeast winds gusting to 45 mph Wednesday, then
NW winds gusting to 50 mph Thu afternoon as the low crosses over
the Brooks Range. NW winds develop to Utqiagvik by Thu night as
the low lifts offshore.

Extended Forecast Days 4-8...
The storm is shifting east and weakening as it moves across the
state Friday, with snow chances across the Interior along a
trailing cold front. A much stronger arctic cold front surges east
over the N Slope and Arctic coast Saturday with continued chances
for snow there. Snow chances over the Interior continue into next
week as a large arctic low sets up over the Arctic Ocean and weak
waves of energy move inland underneath it.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...South to southwest winds
increase along the YK Delta into Norton Sound Wednesday afternoon
and Thursday as a Bering low moves to near Saint Lawrence Island
then to Cape Lisburne. This will likely bring elevated water
levels of 2 to 4 feet above the normal high tideline, which may
bring water over the top of ice near the shore.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Watch for AKZ801-815>817.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ849.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ812-813.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ814.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ820-821.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ822-825.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ823.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ824.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ826.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ827.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ847.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-806-807-850-853-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-809-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher