973
FXAK69 PAFG 142308
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
308 PM AKDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous showers and isolated storms move to the Eastern Interior
today. Any shower or storm can come with briefly heavy rain and
some pea sized hail. High pressure will dry things out for the
Interior Wednesday and Thursday along with warmer temperatures. A
strong front will impact the west coast this afternoon into
Wednesday with snow and blowing snow and gusty southerly winds along
the Bering Strait. Snow mixed with rain from Nome east Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Unsettled weather will continue for the west
coast Wednesday and Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...

Upper Level Analysis...
Ridging will build over the Interior Wed and Thursday. Ridging
slides to the east over the mainland and a strong upper trough
will push into the west coast Tuesday into Thursday. A closed
low over the Bering will track northeast towards Wrangel Island
on Wednesday. Ridging will elongate over the eastern Interior
on Thursday and broad troughing will remain over the Bering
through Friday. Models in-line in the short-term then begin to
diverge over the weekend.


West Coast and Western Interior...
A strong front will begin to impact the west coast this afternoon
and evening with strong southerly winds and snow and blowing snow
for Saint Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Southerly winds
could gust near 60 mph for Saint Lawrence Island and the Bering
Strait. Winter Storm Warnings are still in effect for these
areas through Wednesday afternoon.

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the Seward Penn. Snow
and gusty southerly winds will develop over the Seward
Penninsula, Yukon Delta coast and Northwest Alaska Tuesday evening
into Wednesday. 2 to 4 inches possible for Nome with higher
amounts in the mountains north of Nome. Snow may mix with rain at
times on Wed. Chances of precip continue into Thursday.

Strong south to southwest winds will also cause water levels to
increase 3-5 feet along the Bering and Chukchi Sea coasts.
Shorefast ice is still in place along much of the coast and may
lift the ice and locally push it ashore, especially on south
and southwest facing coastlines. Additionally, water may flood
the ice surface and could impact any equipment/huts remaining on
the ice. High surf is possible in some locations wher there is
little or no shorefast ice. From the Bering Strait north, the sea
ice is more extensive and the risk of coastal impacts will be
lower than the south of the Bering Strait.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Scattered showers and Isolated thunderstorms will be confined to
the Eastern Interior as high pressure builds over the Interior.
Any shower or storm will likely come with briefly moderate
to heavy rain and erratic wind gusts up to 20-30 mph. Any storm
has the potential to come with pea sized hail. No precip expected
on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs in the upper 50s Tuesday and in
the lower 60s on Wednesday and Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range.. A Bering Sea Low will bring a
strong front to the West Coast this evening into Wed. Snow is
expected to begin in Point Hope around 10 PM with southerly winds
increasing to 30-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph. The snow may mix
with rain at times Wednesday afternoon, but the winds will remain
strong through Thursday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect for blowing snow in Point Hope. Northeast of Point Hope,
there won`t be much in the way of snow, but it will be breezy from
Deadhorse west to Barrow with peak gusts around 30-35 mph
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Temperatures will be
warming up Wednesday and Thursday as well. Expect high
temperatures in the mid 30s along the coast and mid 40s to low 50s
in the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A Bering Sea low with
strong southerly winds looks to bring water levels 3 to 5 feet
above the normal high tide line Wednesday morning through
Thursday. With shorefast ice still remaining, it may not be enough
to bump it out of place, but water on top of the ice is a
possibility. Ice pans in the Bering Sea may try to push ashore as
well. These impacts will be monitored early this week.

Extended Forecast for Days 4-7...
Models are in slightly better agreement than yesterday for day 4
and beyond but there is still plenty of uncertainty. We will be
monitoring a chance for another low to move into the West Coast
Friday into Saturday as troughing persists. At this time, this low
looks to be much weaker than what we are currently going through.
Expect a few showers and maybe an isolated storm in the Interior
on Saturday with cooling temps on Sunday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and Isolated thunderstorms will be confined to
the Eastern Interior as high pressure builds over the Interior. No
precip expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Highs in the upper 50s
Tueday and in the lower 60s on Wednesday and Thursday. Minimum
RH`s will be around 25-35% Wed and Thursday. Winds remain
relatively light, though any shower or storm may cause some
erratic winds with gusts as high as 25 mph possible. Gusty winds
aroud 20 to 30 mph are possible from Delta Junction south Wed
evening and in the Alaska Range.


.HYDROLOGY...
A mild breakup on the Yukon River will continue. No impacts have
been reported in Tanana, but there has been ice running for the
last 24 hours and the water has come up. Ice running past Ruby
made its way to Galena today. The water level in Galena rose 2
feet today and has been fluctuating around 114.0 feet since this
afternoon. A heavy run of bank-to-bank ice ran through Galena
during the afternoon. A large channel formed this afternoon around
Bishop Rock and allowed for a heavy run of ice to flow down river.
This run was about 40-45 miles long and extended down river past
Koyukuk near Last Chance. Water levels held steady near Koyukuk.
From Last Chance to Nulato, the river was mostly open with some
chunk ice but there was a series of jams down river of Nulato with
some improvement during the afternoon. Most of the ice has
released at the south bank of the Ninemile Island Jam, and the
jam at river mile 470 appeared weak and degraded. A small jam near
Halfway Island (river mile 460) started to move as well. Water
levels in Nulato were slowly rising but we have not heard of, or
seen any impacts. At Russian Mission, the river is mostly open
upstream but just below, there is a small ice jam. There is some
in place ice in Marshall with chunk ice packed in front of
Marshall. The main break up front is located 7 miles below
Marshall with water levels remaining low. Towards Pilot Station,
the river ice was intact but showed signs of movement and the ice
below Pilot Station appears stronger and more intact. A resident
in Pilot Station reported that the water levels have risen about 5
feet since Sunday.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ814.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820-821-827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-823.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806-807-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ809.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810-811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-817-850-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
&&

$$