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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 231857
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide off the Carolina coast this evening. A
weak cold front pushes through the region on Wednesday, with a
few showers expected. Strong high pressure then builds from the
eastern Great Lakes eastward to off the New England coast
Thursday through Friday. A marked warming trend is then expected
for Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Overall, a very nice late-April day across the region will give
way to a pleasant evening. Afternoon temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s will fall into the mid 50s to low 60s by late evening
under a mostly clear sky. Clouds will be on the increase from NW
to SE overnight, becoming overcast N/NW prior to daybreak and
partly cloudy across Hampton Roads by 12z Wed. It will also be
milder tonight due to the increase in cloud cover and persistent south
winds. Lows in the upr 40s to mid 50s. A cold front will be
encroaching on N/NW portions of the FA by 12z Wed and models do
show scattered isold/wdly showers developing. Will have some low
chc PoPs (~25-30%) across northern areas late tonight to
account for this.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday

Deterministic models remain in good agreement with an upper
trough and main sfc low tracking east across Ontario/Quebec into
northern New England on Wednesday, dragging its cold front
through the local area during the late morning/aftn hours.
Most of the moisture with this system gets scoured out in the
Appalachians to the west, as the low-level flow turns downslope
(westerly) rather quickly. As such, only scattered light rain
showers are anticipated. PoPs will only be 30-40%, with QPF on
the order of a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch. Most of
the shower activity will be over by 21z Wed or at most just
slight chc PoPs. Highs in the low to mid 70s, except upper 60s
for the immediate coast.

The front pushes SSE of the area Wed night, with sfc high pressure
building eastward across the Great Lakes. There still seems enough
mixing to keep temperatures from dropping off too much except
over the far N/NW zones Wed night. Lows will be around 40F NW
to around 50F SE. High pressure builds east from the eastern
Great Lakes to off the New England coast Thu through Fri. Mostly
sunny and cool Thu/Fri with highs ranging from the mid 50s to
mid 60s (coolest along the coast Thu due to modest onshore flow).
Clear/mostly clear Thu night with lows ranging from the upr 30s
to mid 40s. Patchy frost may be possible once again, mainly
over the northern 1/2 of the FA from the piedmont to e-central
VA and the eastern shore. A bit milder Fri night as the airmass
modifies (but remains near to below normal) courtesy of
persistent onshore flow. Lows Friday night range through the
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

The medium range forecast period begins with an amplifying
upper ridge from the Gulf of Mexico to the upper midwest,
expanding to the east coast over the weekend. This ridge
continues to look a bit stronger than modeled earlier this week,
which should keep the FA mainly dry through the weekend.
Temperatures trend back upward through the period; from near
normal Sat (highs in the 70s, except 60s Eastern Shore), to
above normal Sun-Mon (low-mid 80s inland, upper 70s to around 80
coast) as the upper ridge remains across the ern CONUS. The
next system will approach Monday and Tuesday of next week.
Showers and isold storms will be possible with the frontal
passage itself next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday...

SKC to start the 18z TAF period, but then mid to high clouds
will be on the increase from NW to SE by late this evening into
Wed morning as a cold front approaches. Winds will primarily be
SSW through the 18z TAF period. A few showers will be possible
with the cold front as it passes on Wednesday. However, flying
conditions should remain VFR. Have -SHRA at KRIC/KSBY beginning
12z Wed and at KPHF/KORF beginning 13-15z Wed.

Dry/VFR conditions then persist for the late week period into
the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 320 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs have been issued for all local waters this evening into Wednesday.

- Another round of SCA conditions is likely Wednesday night
  into Thursday behind a cold front.

Low pressure remains well offshore today with high pressure sliding
off the Southeast coast late this afternoon into tonight. Winds
early this morning were generally W 5-10 kt. Winds diminish later
this morning before becoming SE/S this afternoon, increasing to 15-
20 kt by late afternoon. As the high slides offshore, winds become S
with gusts to 25 kt this evening into early tonight, becoming SW 15-
25 kt with gusts to 30 kt late tonight ahead of a cold front.
Therefore, SCAs are now in effect for all local waters. Winds
diminish below SCA criteria by Wed afternoon. The cold front crosses
the local waters Wed evening into early Wed night with winds
becoming N/NE 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt late Wed night into Thu.
Another round of SCAs will likely be needed for this surge. NE winds
diminish Thu across the N waters but remain 15-20 kt across the S
coastal waters (and potentially the lower bay/mouth of the bay).
High pressure builds in across New England Thu night into Fri before
gradually sliding off the coast Sat. Winds generally remain NE/E 10-
15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt into Sat, becoming SE late Sat
and S Sat night into early next week.

Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-4 ft respectively early
this morning. Waves and seas build to 3-4 ft and 4-7 ft tonight.
Seas gradually subside below 5 ft by Tue evening before building
back to 4-6 ft late Tue night into Thu behind the cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

An Increased Fire Danger Statement remains in effect until 7 PM
for much of central/eastern VA and the lower MD Eastern Shore
due to RH values in the 25-35% range, wind gusts to 20 mph and
low fuel moisture levels.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 500 AM EDT Tuesday...

Winds become SE/S this afternoon into early tonight before
becoming SW after midnight. As such, water will be pushed into
the upper bay before being redirected towards the western coast
of the Maryland Eastern Shore later tonight during high tide.
Tidal anomalies of 1-1.6 feet are expected which should allow
Bishops Head and Cambridge to reach solidly into Minor Flood
stage. As such, a Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for
tonight`s high tide across portions of the Maryland Eastern
Shore. Winds diminish Wednesday along with tidal anomalies.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     MDZ021>024.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT
     Wednesday for MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075-076-079>085-087>090-092-093-095>097-
     509>524.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ633-635>637.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM/MAM
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...RMM
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ