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000
FXUS64 KAMA 211130
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
630 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Latest 08Z observations shows a weak perturbation in the mean
H500 NW flow that is generating a few light rain showers across
the northern combined Panhandles. These rain showers should
diminish by the mid morning hours. Also what we are watching this
morning in the far NW Panhandles will be temperatures as low as 33
to 36 degrees by sunrise where patchy frost conditions will be
possible as we start the growing season. Temperatures will
moderate above the mid 30s for all of the Panhandles by mid
morning. Southerly and southwesterly winds will be more
established by this afternoon. High temperatures will warm up back
into the lower 60s, still around 5 to 10 degrees below average
for mid to late April.

Latest 21/00Z model and numerical guidance for Monday shows a
developing cut off H500 perturbation with its main axis across
southern Canada across Manitoba and extending into North Dakota.
Further south into the central and southern High Plains a notable
H250 jet streak extending east from the Rockies will help provide
large scale descent across the Panhandles. With a lee sfc trough
by tomorrow afternoon developing across SW Kansas, enhanced
downslope diurnally driven sfc winds will be in the forecast. This
will aid in good WAA into the region. Dry and much warmer
conditions expected for tomorrow vs. today. High temperatures
tomorrow will range from the mid 70s in the southern TX Panhandle
to low and mid 80s for the northern Panhandles, where downslope
winds will be maximized.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Model agreement continues to portray a more active weather
pattern next week for the Panhandles. Despite the activity,
temperatures will look to rebound towards a more seasonal normal
with most locations climbing back into the 70s to low 80s by the
mid-week, which could peak at the end of the work week with highs
closer to the mid 80s.

For Tuesday, general model agreement sees the upper-level pattern
shift more towards an week upper level ridge that will
unfortunately will see dry air hold across the Panhandles for
Tuesday. What will see a change to this drier patter will be the
introduction of a frontal boundary later that day Tuesday. With
the boundary in play, the high pressure will be push further south
and allow for a more zonal pattern to take its place. In
addition, a shift in the 850 mb flow will become more prevalent
which will see warm air advection and moisture move in for
Wednesday and Thursday. By Wednesday, dewpoints have the potential
to rise into the 50s with Pops rising above 20% across the
eastern half the Panhandles.

Of course these conditions will all accumulated into the main
system expected to arrive sometime Thursday. While there is still
quite a lot to work out between models, general consensus is
expecting a new trough to dip south into Kansas and/or Nebraska.
For us in the Panhandles, this set up usually results in one of
three things. Those three things are either a good severe weather
day, a critical fire weather day, or (in most cases) a mix of the
two. Of course, what will determine most of this will be the final
position of the dryline for the day. Anything that is east of the
dry line will see enough moisture and instability available for
severe weather, while the westward side will see hot, dry, and
windy conditions great enough for fires to become hard to contain.
Currently guidance, does give us a shot with chances of
precipitation sitting around 30 to 40% that afternoon. In
addition, majority of the the long range models are beginning to
play favor to the better chances for storms that afternoon.
However, confidence in such a call this far out is not the
greatest as mesoscale features will play a key role in the final
say for the position of the dryline. Either way, more chances for
precipitation may follow the weekend as a secondary trough does
look to move in immediately after.

Scoleri

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. The
only exception could be for the first 1-3 hours of the TAF period.
Although low cigs are nearby, they are not quite reaching TAF
sites. Some quick amendments maybe needed during the
aforementioned time window. As we approach 18Z, VFR levels will
remain throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be
out of the east to start and become more southerly and
southwesterly later this afternoon through the end of the TAF
period at 5-15 kts.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  39  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  62  39  82  50 /  10   0   0  10
Boise City OK              62  40  84  46 /   0   0  10  10
Borger TX                  64  42  82  55 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              62  40  82  52 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  60  38  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               60  39  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 60  37  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  61  39  83  47 /  10   0   0  10
Hereford TX                60  38  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                62  41  79  52 /  10   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   60  40  77  53 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                62  39  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              62  38  72  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ001-002-006-
     007.

OK...Frost Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29