Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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131 FXUS64 KAMA 191721 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 As of the latest 07Z observations, light northeasterly flow is keeping temperatures slightly below average with values as low as mid 30s for portions of the northern Panhandles. With sct to nearly ovc high clouds that will be common throughout the day today, thanks to H500 zonal flow advecting mid level moisture into the southern High Plains ahead of our next system, high temperatures today will be below average. High temperatures will range from the lower 60s in the eastern Panhandles to upper 60s in the western Panhandles, where the sun may peak through the clouds from time to time keeping the western Panhandles slightly warmer. Light easterly sfc flow tonight will keep cooler temps for the Panhandles with low temperatures tonight ranging from the mid 30s in the NW to mid 40s in the SE. Starting around sunrise tomorrow morning, rain chances will move into the Panhandles. Monitoring closely a H500 trough with its main axis moving northeast across NM and then moving into SW KS by tomorrow night. The more pronounced moisture advection will advect from the Texas Hill Country into west Texas and the Panhandles. If more organized rain and/or convection develops further south of the CWA, this could limit moisture transport. However, broad lift downstream of the main H500 trough axis should provide a decent chance for rain at some point tomorrow across all of the Panhandles. With that said, the better moisture axis return will bring the higher probability of rainfall tomorrow to areas along and line from Channing to Borger to Miami and points south, especially the I-40 corridor. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s. As the main system exits the region tomorrow night with H850-500 subsidence to the backside of the main system with light winds, temperatures will drop to near freezing, especially in the NW Panhandles. Cloud cover may limit more widespread sub freezing low temperatures, but will have to watch trends closely to see if this changes. Low temperatures tomorrow night will range from near freezing in the western Panhandles to lower 40s for the far SE TX Panhandle. Meccariello && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 Upper level ridging returns to the area Sunday with northwest flow aloft. This will help daytime temperatures warm back into the 60s after an abnormally cool April day on Sat. The ridge builds even more over the area Mon bringing warmer daytime temperatures in the 80s across the northern combined Panhandles with mid to upper 70s to the southeast. This temp difference will be from the orientation of an expected LLTR creeping into the northwestern FA from AZ/NM. At the same time an upper level shortwave trough is to dig into the Dakotas and MN. This trough is progged to send some ripples in the flow aloft down the Great Plains. Depending on the strength of some of these perturbations some showers will be possible across the far north eastern combined Panhandles Mon night. This system in the Northern Great Plains and Upper Mississippi River Valley is also expected to send a weak cold front into the combined Panhandles early Tue morning keeping temps in the upper 60s to the north and mid 70s to the south. Confidence is not very high Tue onward. However, moisture presence along with possible perturbations aloft will bring around a 20 to 30 PoP for parts of the FA Tue night through Thu. Have stayed with NBM values for now. Thu could be interesting as a leeside low develops in eastern CO from a shortwave H5 trough swinging up from southern CA into UT. The surface low will create a surface trough that ultimately forms a dryline somewhere over the area on Thu. This dryline could potentially bring some severe thunderstorms to the area Thu afternoon depending on the progression of the dryline and whether there will be a cap in place. The GFS has the dryline dissecting the combined Panhandles during the middle of the afternoon, mixing east through the evening and stays east of the Panhandles Fri. The EC has the dryline mix east then retreat back into the Panhandles early Fri morning. The position of the dryline will determine if the far eastern Panhandles see any PoPs for Fri afternoon. For now the NBM only has a 20 PoP for Collingsworth County. Thu appears to be the breeziest day driven by the pressure gradient of the lee low and is also looking to be the warmest day with highs well in the 80s. 36 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024 VFR conditions persist at all terminals and across the panhandles through this evening. Late today and more so Saturday a weather system will impact the panhandles bringing rain showers and low cloud decks. The low clouds may lead to MVFR conditions for the morning hours of Saturday. The overall trajectory of this system favors the southern TX panhandle for actual occurrence of the rain showers and low clouds with decreasing odds for the northern TX and all of OK panhandles. While the odds are not high enough to reflect in any TAF there is a small chance of less than 15 percent that a thunderstorm could form Saturday morning in the southern TX panhandle. Winds will see a slow shift through the rest of today from the SE to E as this system begins to move into the panhandles. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 40 48 37 60 / 40 70 30 0 Beaver OK 36 53 34 64 / 20 30 20 0 Boise City OK 36 48 32 64 / 30 30 20 0 Borger TX 42 54 39 65 / 30 50 30 0 Boys Ranch TX 41 50 38 64 / 40 50 30 0 Canyon TX 39 47 37 61 / 50 90 30 0 Clarendon TX 43 48 39 58 / 40 70 30 0 Dalhart TX 36 47 32 62 / 30 30 30 0 Guymon OK 36 51 32 65 / 30 30 30 0 Hereford TX 40 48 37 61 / 60 100 30 0 Lipscomb TX 41 52 38 62 / 20 30 20 0 Pampa TX 42 50 38 60 / 20 40 30 0 Shamrock TX 43 51 39 60 / 30 60 30 0 Wellington TX 44 50 40 59 / 50 70 40 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...98