Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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321 FXUS64 KAMA 281738 AAB AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1238 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A weak cold front has been cruising south through the area tonight, bringing in a marginally cooler air mass with northwest winds. The upper level system associated with yesterday`s gusty conditions and severe weather will continue to lift northward over the Plains today, leaving the Panhandles with a beautiful spring Sunday. Winds will only be 10-20 mph, and high temperatures this afternoon should range from upper 60s across the northwest to upper 70s in the southeast. The far northwest to north central combined Panhandles could see some very light showers late this evening into the overnight hours when a minor shortwave disturbance passes overhead. Dry air will remain prevalent however, amounting to only a 10-20% chance for measurable rainfall. Subtle ridging aloft takes over Monday, allowing for the start of a much warmer week. Light south winds and highs in the 80s will return for most of the forecast area as a result. Harrel && .LONG TERM ... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Tuesday will be a warm and dry day as zonal flow will continue across the Panhandles. Highs will almost be 90 across the board on Tuesday, with a couple of isolated areas in the upper 80s. Overall, winds will be tame in the 15 to 20 mph range with fairly low RH values. This will provide elevated to low end critical Fire Weather conditions. Wednesday will almost be a carbon copy to Tuesday temperature wise, but we are seeing signs of the dryline backing into the central Panhandles, and that will bring us the chance of showers and storms, possibly severe for the central and eastern Panhandles Wednesday evening. NBM pops have about a 20 to 30 percent chance for storms in the east on Wednesday evening, and that will suffice for the time being. Thursday`s highs will be a challenge as it all depends on how fast the next system moves through. Right now most highs are based on nearly optimum heating for most areas, as the front may not move through until after 1 pm for the OK Panhandle. That will give ample time for most areas to warm up. Position of the trough and residual moisture will play a role in the pop potential, but for now keeping NBM`s 20-30 percent for the southeast in the afternoon, and for the rest of the Panhandles during the evening hours. Most likely this will be isolated to widely scattered showers if we do get anything, so it`s not looking that great for areas in the central an western Panhandles. The front looks pretty strong given the nearly 20C 850mb temperature drop, and therefore would expect strong wind behind this front, with the winds relaxing after sunrise on Friday. Again, overnight showers will be possible as well, depending on the track and position of the system. Highs on Friday only be in the upper 60s to near 70. Saturday will likely return to the upper 70s to lower 80s as zonal flow with warmer air returns. NBM is giving some pops on Saturday, but overall it looks contingent on a shortwave moving through helping to kick off some storms. So confidence is not very high in the pops. Weber && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A few showers may make a run at the DHT and GUY TAF sites early this evening, but have not mentioned them as confidence is low that they will make it those sites. Otherwise, skies are expected to remain VFR at all sites. Winds are expected to remain around 10 knots or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 47 82 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 43 82 53 92 / 10 10 0 0 Boise City OK 41 77 46 87 / 10 0 0 0 Borger TX 48 85 54 94 / 10 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 45 83 49 92 / 10 0 0 0 Canyon TX 46 82 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 49 82 54 91 / 0 0 0 10 Dalhart TX 40 79 43 87 / 10 0 0 0 Guymon OK 42 81 47 90 / 10 0 0 0 Hereford TX 46 82 49 90 / 10 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 46 82 55 93 / 10 10 0 0 Pampa TX 48 81 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 49 82 55 91 / 0 0 0 10 Wellington TX 49 84 56 91 / 0 0 0 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...15