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000
FXUS64 KAMA 150612
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
112 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

With confidence markedly increasing over recent runs regarding
tomorrow`s severe weather threat, thinking is that the vast
majority of the severe potential will exist outside of the Texas
and Oklahoma Panhandles. With that being said, we can`t rule out a
stray storm or two developing along the dryline across our
eastern most counties of the Panhandles tomorrow evening. Critical
fire weather conditions will exist for a larger portion of the
Panhandles as a result, and a Red Flag Warning will be in effect
for north-northwestern areas. Highs tomorrow will be in the 80s
area wide, overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

Models have reinforced the notion of a northward system track,
along with a stronger push of dry air west of the dryline,
confining better theta-e south and east of the area. This should
keep the dryline situated closer to the TX-OK border, shunting
most convective potential out of the CWA. High cloud cover through
the day looks to be another limiting factor, backed by a majority
of forecast soundings which suggest capping could hold strong
through the afternoon, limiting the ability for storms to initiate
until stronger forcing arrives with a Pacific front and the main
upper level low later in the evening. If any convection does
develop in the far east, 6 PM to midnight would be the most likely
window of opportunity. Modest instability of 1000-2000 J/kg
MUCAPE above the cap combined with strong deep-layer shear would
support large hail up to 2 inches in diameter being the main
threat, although damaging winds and an isolated tornado risk
wouldn`t be ruled out. In all, there will only be around a 15-30%
probability for storms to even develop across our eastern most
stack of counties tomorrow.

Critical fire weather remains the prominent threat tomorrow,
especially for the north-northwestern combined Panhandles.
Previous indications that the sfc low will develop further north
are holding steady, leaving a far less pronounced pressure
gradient over our northern zones. Despite this shift, gusty
southwest winds sustained at 25-35 mph gusting up to 45 mph should
still materialize through the afternoon and evening hours. Warm,
bone dry air will settle in behind the dryline, where dew pts and
relative humidity values will plummet, well into the single digits
based on drier solutions. Atmospheric conditions would be
conducive for critical fire weather across the southern Texas
Panhandle as well, but fuels are becoming widely insusceptible to
fire starts due to recent heavy rain.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Breezy to near strong winds for Tuesday to start the long term
forecast period, along with elevated to critical fire weather
conditions returning. The potential stronger winds where
headlines may be needed will be across the Oklahoma Panhandle and
far northern Texas Panhandle. This area in particular will be
under the area of the most persistent mid level convergence from
the H850-700 jet streak that will parallel the central Rockies.
Coupled with steep height gradient with rapid height rises on the
backside of the departing low pressure system, northwest winds
could be sustained around 30-35 mph at times with gusts to near
50 in the aforementioned area of stronger winds. Min RH values
will be at or below 15 percent. Coupled with the winds, fire
weather conditions for the northern Panhandles in particular will
have to be closely monitored. Winds will taper off going into
Tuesday night. High temperatures on Tuesday will remain several
degrees above average.

Dry weather conditions will continue for the remainder of the
coming work week in the long term forecast period. NEar to above
average temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by below
average temperatures for Friday and Saturday. The temperature
swing is due to a cold front moving south across the Panhandles.
Perhaps enough daytime heating may cause a shower or storm for the
far SE TX Panhandle later this coming week, but chances remain
very low at this time.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, southwest winds will increase and become gusty
at the terminal sites later today before diminishing late Monday
evening. Patchy blowing dust is also expected along with periods
of high level clouds.

02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Very poor relative humidity recovery (maximum values between 20%
to 40%) is expected tonight in the western half of the combined
Panhandles, especially in the northwestern combined Panhandles,
leading to accelerated drying potential. Tomorrow, the
combination of very low relative humidity and breezy to windy
conditions west of the dryline is expected to create critical fire
weather conditions. However, there is lower confidence in
critical fire weather conditions in the southwestern Texas
Panhandle due to the 1 to 4 inches of rain that fell less than a
week prior, in addition to the ongoing green-up. All considered,
the fire weather watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning
for the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northwestern and north-
central Texas Panhandle. Have left the southwestern Texas
Panhandle out of the watch as fuels are currently expected to be
unreceptive.

Elevated to critical fire weather will be possible across the
northern combined Panhandles again on Tuesday, due to potential
for even stronger winds compared to Monday out of the west-
northwest, as well as low relative humidity values.

Vanden Bosch/Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                50  81  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  50  81  44  82 /  20  10   0   0
Boise City OK              44  76  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  52  86  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              49  84  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  49  81  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               52  82  48  81 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 43  80  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  46  80  42  81 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                48  81  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                53  83  48  82 /  30   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   51  82  47  80 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                52  84  49  81 /  30   0   0   0
Wellington TX              51  84  49  81 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ001>004-006>008-011-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...02