112
FXUS63 KARX 150918
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
418 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and storm chances increase across the forecast area
  tonight into Thursday. The risk for severe weather remains
  low.

- Increasing temperature trend into the end of the week/early
  weekend.

- Additional periods of showers and storms look possible into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Today - End of the Week:

Quieter conditions look to start the day before another system moves
through the region. This can be seen on current GOES satellite
imagery and RAP progs which show a shortwave tracking across the
Dakotas. This shortwave trough is then forecast to move across the
local region tonight into Thursday along with an associated surface
front. With sufficient forcing and increasing moisture, model
guidance shows scattered showers and perhaps a few storms developing
to the west and moving generally west/southwest to east/northeast
across the local forecast area tonight into early Thursday. Model
forecast soundings show some instability along with increasing low
level lapse rates which could help support some additional
convection development into the day on Thursday especially across
portions of Wisconsin. Although isolated storms cannot be ruled out,
the risk for severe weather remains low. Overall, HREF ensemble
probability-matched mean ending on Thursday night shows QPF
generally 0.10 to 0.25 inches across much of the area, with a few
localized areas of 0.25 to 0.5 inches.

The current forecast trends drier for most on Friday with
temperatures increasing into the upper 70s across the forecast area.

Weekend - Early Next Week:

Moving into the weekend, there does appears to be better
consensus on an upper level shortwave trough swinging across
the Northern Plains Friday night into Saturday before moving
across the local region late Saturday. Model guidance would
suggest some areas of rainfall developing in association with
this system and this seems to be reflected much better in the
latest blended model guidance. Even so, there are still some
differences in guidance revolving around specific details such
as timing and location of any developing convection. Will
continue to refine these details as confidence increases in the
coming days. While there is some spread, will mention that
ensemble solutions do also show a signal for increasing
temperatures into the early part of the weekend, with the
current forecast suggesting temperatures around 80 could be
possible for some by Saturday.

Into early next week, various shortwaves through the flow look to
bring potential for more showers and storms. However, timing and
location of these shortwaves remains of lower predictability at this
forecast range. Thus, will maintain blended model guidance for now.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1035 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with a
few high clouds and some smoke aloft at times. Sky cover will begin
to increase during the evening on Wednesday and an incoming
disturbance brings in a mid-level to low-VFR cloud deck with showers
moving in overnight Wednesday and into Thursday. Winds will
remain fairly light at around 5-10 kts through the TAF period
from the east, slowly shifting southeast later into the day on
Wednesday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EMS
AVIATION...Naylor