Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 230009
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning and Heavy Rainfall:

A frontal boundary with two embedded low pressure systems
extending from Sarasota, Florida NW to 28N88W are gradually
tracking eastward across the NE Gulf of Mexico. Abundant moisture
associated with these lows is coupling with diffluent winds aloft
to trigger scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over
the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Some of these
thunderstorms can become severe, capable of producing heavy
downpours with reduced visibility, frequent gale-force wind gusts
and even waterspouts. These thunderstorms are over the Florida
Keys, and are expected to reach southeastern Florida later this
evening. Heavy downpours will produce 2 to 4 inches of rain
across southern Florida through Saturday afternoon. Please refer
to your local NWS Weather Forecast Offices at website:
https://www.weather.gov for the latest advisories and warnings.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:

A 1007 mb low pressure over NE Louisiana and its related strong
cold front across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico will continue to
push eastward over the next several days. The cold front is
anticipated to exit into the western Atlantic early Saturday
morning. Near-gale to gale-force southerly winds ahead of this
front are occuring from the northwest Bahamas northward to beyond
31N and between 73W and 81W. Seas in this area will build to 13 ft.
As the front moves farther eastward, these near-gale to gale-
force winds will shift to north of 27N between 68W and 75W by
Saturday afternoon. Seas are going to peak at 16 ft. By Sunday
morning, this areas of gale winds and high seas are expected to be
north of 28N between 65W and 68W. Afterward, both winds and seas
should gradually subside through Sunday evening as the front
steadily weakens.

Mariners should monitor all the above hazardous marine conditions
and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High
Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Gambia and southern Senegal, then reaches southwestward to
03N30W. The ITCZ extends from 00N24W to 03S34W to 02S44W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04S to 10N between 08W and
31W, and from 03S to 02N W of 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about Frequent Gale Gusts
and Heavy Rainfall in the SE Gulf associated with a frontal
boundary extending from Sarasota, Florida to SE Louisiana adjacent
waters. A cold front extends from SE Louisiana SW to 26N95W.
Gentle to moderate N to NW winds follow this second front while
seas remain slight to moderate. In the far eastern Gulf S of 28N E
of 85W, seas are 8 to 11 ft.

For the forecast, the frontal boundary mentioned in the Special
Features Section will move E this evening and then inland across
Florida tonight. Strong to gale-force southerly winds are expected
over the SE Gulf through this evening, mainly associated with the
thunderstorm activity. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe
with higher gusts and frequent lightning. The cold front behind
the leading frontal boundary will reach from near Tallahassee, FL
to near 22N91W Sat morning, and exit the basin to the SE by early
Sat evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds will spill across
the basin well behind the front tonight through Sat. High pressure
in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward from late
Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to strong
southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf, ahead of the
next cold front. Strong southerly winds will shift to the central
and eastern Gulf early Mon through Mon night as a cold front
enters the western Gulf Mon night. Fresh to strong N winds are
briefly expected Tue behind the front over the SW Gulf of Mexico.
The front will slow down and weaken mid-week over the eastern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over the NW Atlantic extends a surface ridge southward
to the northern Caribbean, thus sustaining moderate to fresh trade
winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, except for
locally strong winds off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. In
the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and the Yucatan
Channel, winds are fresh to locally strong from the SE and seas
are moderate.

For the forecast, a cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel and
the far northwestern Caribbean Sat afternoon. The front will then
reach from eastern Cuba to the Honduras-Nicaragua border Sun
evening, before stalling and dissipating on Mon. Fresh to strong
SE winds will develop over the western Caribbean late Mon through
Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about
an upcoming Gale Warning.

Elsewhere, the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a
broad surface ridge being intersected by a cold front in the
central Atlantic extending from 31N50W to 22N56W where it
transitions to a shear line that continues to the Hispaniola
adjacent waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ahead of this
front to the Bahamas offshore waters. NE to E winds of similar
speed are E of the front between the Cape verde Islands and the
coast of Africa. Rough seas in this region peak to 16 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, Atlantic high pressure centered along
the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. will shift E-NE and
strengthen through the weekend. Strong to near-gale force SE to S
winds E of Florida will increase to gale force this evening, as
low pressure tracks eastward across the Gulf of Mexico, and then
inland across the southeastern U.S. tonight. Strong southerly
winds will expand elsewhere between Florida and 67W. Strong to
severe thunderstorms with frequent gusts to gale force and
frequent lightning are expected tonight through Sat offshore
southern and central Florida, the Straits of Florida, and the
Bahamas. The gale force S winds will move slowly E across the
forecast waters, mainly N of 26N, through Sun. The front will exit
NE Florida Sat afternoon, reach from near 31N73W to central Cuba
on Sun morning, from 31N66W to eastern Cuba by Mon morning, then
weaken considerably as it moves SE across the Atlantic waters
through Tue. Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE to N
swell will follow the front Sun through Mon to the east of
northern and central Florida.

$$
Ramos


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