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000
FXUS61 KBGM 171325
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
925 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers are expected this afternoon as a warm front moves
through the area. Rain showers will continue off and on through
Thursday. A quick high pressure system pushes across the area
Thursday night before another system brings more showers on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
925 AM Update:

The forecast remains on track and no significant changes were
needed with this update.

630 AM Update...

High level clouds have moved overhead ahead of the approaching
storm system. Forecast remains on track with rain showers
starting late morning/early afternoon.

255 AM Update...

Calm and quiet conditions tonight and through tomorrow morning.
Temps tonight range from low 30s in the valleys of the Catskills
to 50 in the Wyoming Valley. Temps will cool a few more degrees
as clear skies remain mostly east of I-81 and winds have calmed
across the region.

The pleasant weather pattern over the last couple of days will
become active again as a low pressure system moves in from the
west. Multiple fronts and shortwave moving through the region
will bring rain showers and a possible isolated thunderstorm
Wed afternoon into Thursday afternoon.

A warm front will push into the region from the west beginning
late in the morning. Temperatures are expected to climb into the
mid 50s to low 60s, with the warmer temps in the Wyoming and
Mohawk Valleys. Precipitation will accompany the front, with
rain showers expected to begin in the early afternoon and push
to the NE. Model soundings show a pretty strong inversion near
the surface as the warm front moves through, so the initial
precip should be void of thunder. Some elevated instability is
expected to develop during the evening hours, and combined with
a shortwave pushing through the area will bring a chance for
isolated thunderstorms during the mid evening into the overnight
hours stretching from the western Finger Lakes into NEPA.

A brief lull in shower activity is expected around sunrise on
Thursday before a weak cold front and trough axis moves through
the area from mid morning into the afternoon. This should allow
for rain showers to remain across the region into the evening
hours. Temperatures on Thursday will vary greatly from west to
east, with low 60s expected out west to upper 40s in the
Catskills.

While we have a long period of rain, total rainfall amounts are
expected to be low, with 0.25 to 0.75 inches expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM Update

Generally dry conditions are expected Thursday night, along
with seasonable overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s.

The brief dry period doesn`t last, as yet another frontal system
quickly moves in from the west during the day on Friday. Exact
timing is uncertain, but chances for rain showers look to increase
up to likely or categorical PoPs by afternoon over the area. If
the current timing holds, temperatures would rise up into the
mid-50s to lower 60s before the rain chances increase later in
the day. Breezy south winds at 10-20 mph are expected on Friday
ahead of the cold front. Latest trends are for some lingering
rain showers Friday evening, but then a faster return to dry
weather after midnight, with partial clearing late. It will be
cool, with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40 in most locations.

Saturday is also trending drier, especially in the morning.
Current model data actually starts it off partly to mostly sunny
in the morning. Then, a shortwave trough swings through in the
cool NW flow pattern during the afternoon. This will lead to
increasing strato-cumulus cloud development and scattered pop up
showers for Central NY and the northern tier of NE PA. Expect
breezy west-northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up around 30
mph...it will be seasonably cool with highs in the 50s.

Saturday night is dry, with decreasing clouds and diminishing
winds. A surface ridge begins to build in later at night. If
winds decouple fast enough it will be quite chilly/cold with
lows down between 30 to 35 with areas of frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
400 AM Update

Sunday and Monday are looking dry at this time, under a large
area of high pressure. A low pressure system is forecast to pass
by well off to our south, over the Carolinas and southern Mid-
Atlantic on Monday. This could spread some high clouds toward
the southern portion of our CWA on Monday. Overall, this should
bring mostly sunny/clear conditions. Increased the diurnal
temperatures range by a few degrees each period, with it likely
being 1-3 degrees warmer during the day than the NBM suggested...and
perhaps a bit cooler at night in the lower to mid-30s again.
This looks to be a good setup for potential frost.

At this point Tuesday is also looking dry to start, but the
latest guidance suggest at least a chance for late day showers
as the next upper level disturbance moves into the Ohio Valley
and east-central Great Lakes region. Expect mild afternoon highs
in the lower 60s both Monday and Tuesday. Looking ahead to next
Wednesday, and upper level trough will be over the
Northeast...bringing a continued chance for rain showers and
partly sunny skies. Steady daytime temperatures and a bit
milder overnight with the clouds around and a light southwest
wind.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions across all terminals through the morning hours.

An approaching low pressure system will bring rain to the region
starting late this morning, moving west to east, covering the
all terminals by mid afternoon. MVFR conditions are expected at
the onset of precipitation, with the main forecast challenge
being which terminals fall into IFR conditions later in the
afternoon and evening. Plenty of rain and moisture are expected
across the area from the incoming system, and SE flow into the
evening hours will reinforce this with moisture coming in off
the Atlantic. SE flow also means downsloping at AVP, ELM, ITH,
SYR and RME so the big question is does the downsloping win out
over the showers and moisture in place.

Current thinking is AVP should see IFR conditions later this
evening, as even though there will be downsloping off the
Poconos, cooling temperatures and abundant moisture should get
ceilings to IFR. ELM and ITH are expected to be MVFR through the
evening, falling to IFR ceilings later this evening and
overnight as temps cool enough to drop ceiling heights.

A SE wind at BGM brings upslope flow to the terminal, which
should drop conditions to IFR by late afternoon.

SYR and RME are expected to see MVFR conditions by mid
afternoon thanks the the downsloping flow and warmer temps
allowing ceilings to take hold above IFR levels through most of
the afternoon. There is a signal for IFR ceilings during the
overnight hours, but confidence is not high enough to include it
in this set of TAFs.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Friday: Chance of showers each day with
restrictions possible.

Saturday into Sunday...NW flow with some MVFR cigs possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/JTC
NEAR TERM...BJG/JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC