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000
FXUS64 KBRO 140825
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
325 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain on the
northern periphery of 500 mb high pressure centered over the Bay
of Campeche during the period. This will produce dry weather
across the region, with daytime highs and overnight lows running a
few degrees above normal for this time of year.

Meanwhile, at the surface, an enhanced pressure gradient will exist
courtesy of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico interacting with
low pressure over Mexico. Breezy to windy conditions will occur,
with the strongest winds anticipated to be on Monday. However, model
guidance indicates the strength of the wind on Monday to be just
below established WIND ADVISORY criteria. Will continue to observe
model trends through the next 24 hours regarding wind strengths for
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

A mid-level ridge centered over the Bay of Campeche and extending
over Deep South Texas Monday night will slowly move eastward by mid
week, being replaced with an mid to upper level trough. Rain-free
and very warm conditions are expected across the region through much
of the period. However, a series of embedded 500mb shortwaves in the
trough may generated some convection Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night and again Friday afternoon into Friday night,
especially across the Rio Grande Plains. The 500mb trough is
expected to swing eastward late week into next weekend and may push
a weak cold front into the region. The best chances for showers and
thunderstorms look to be on Saturday and Saturday night. However,
things can changes as there remains some uncertainty due to
disagreements in the the models.

At the surface, southeasterly flow will support breezy to windy
conditions through midweek. Otherwise, above normal daytime highs
and overnight lows are anticipated through much of the period.
Slightly cooler temperatures will be possible Friday into the
weekend due to increase cloud cover and rain chances along with a
more easterly onshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR is expected to prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24
hours. Moderate to breezy winds are also anticipated with clouds
mainly upper-level.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Today through Monday: An enhanced pressure gradient will exist
over the western Gulf of Mexico during the period. Breezy winds
and moderate seas are forecast along the Lower Texas Coast, and a
combination of Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft
Advisory will be needed to account for the more adverse marine
conditions.

Monday night through Saturday...Adverse marine conditions with Small
Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisories will likely
continue until Wednesday due to an enhanced pressure gradient.
Lighter winds and lower seas are expected Thursday and Friday as the
pressure gradient weakens. Generally favorable conditions will
persist through the remainder of the period. Some showers and
thunderstorms will be possible over the Lower Texas Coastal waters
on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             84  72  85  74 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               87  69  88  72 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 90  72  90  74 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         93  70  95  74 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      77  72  78  73 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     83  70  84  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ130-132-135.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...66-Tomaselli