Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 271926
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
326 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers will continue over mainly eastern areas
through Thursday as a weak cold front slowly crosses the region. Low
pressure moving northward well off the East Coast will bring the
chance for some rain and snow across far eastern Vermont Thursday
night and Friday, but the main trend for the end of the week will be
near normal temperatures and drier weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...A cold front will continue to make slow
eastward progress across our region tonight and tomorrow. Today`s
shower activity will exit to the east later this evening as a weak
wave of low pressure lifts northeast, with a brief break from the
precipitation overnight. However, ample low level moisture will
linger, and given light winds, patchy fog will develop, especially
in areas along/east of the Greens. Our next round of precipitation
will then spread northward early Thursday morning, focusing mainly
over eastern and south-central VT as best moisture pools ahead of
the front. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s/low 40s
overnight, so while some snow may mix in at summit levels,
precipitation is expected to start out as rain. Showers will persist
through about mid afternoon Thursday, but should start to shift
eastward thereafter as the front does likewise. Given abundant cloud
cover, highs tomorrow will be in the 40s areawide. The front will
move to our east Thursday night while developing low pressure lifts
northward well off the East Coast. This may allow precipitation to
linger across far eastern Vermont through the overnight hours.
Colder air will follow the frontal passage as winds turn to the
northwest, so although temperatures will remain above normal
(upper 20s to mid 30s), rain will likely transition over to
snow. Light accumulations will be possible, limited to mainly
the far Northeast Kingdom.

The overall trend with this model suite has been a slight westward
shift in the rain axis through the next 36 hours. This has resulted
in increase in expected rainfall totals, which now range from around
a tenth of an inch in much of northern NY to nearly three-quarters
of an inch in southeastern VT. While temperatures will remain above
freezing much of that time, expect snowmelt will be relatively
limited as the snowpack ripens, especially in those areas that saw
the greatest amounts in our recent snow event. Latest guidance shows
snowmelt will generally be an inch or less through this period. This
combined with rainfall will result in rises along area waterways,
especially smaller, flashier creeks and streams. While the latest
forecasts from the NERFC keep mainstem rivers below flood stage,
some southern rivers such as Otter Creek may approach bankfull.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...An upper level trough will build into
the region on Friday. A surface low will develop on a shortwave that
pivots around it but right now it looks like the low should pass by
far enough to the east to keep any significant precipitation out of
the region. However, about 1/4 of the Euro and GFS ensembles do
bring the precipitation west enough to give parts of eastern Vermont
a few inches of snow. Currently put chance PoPs in those areas to
reflect this uncertainty. Regardless of the exact low track, the
storm system will help tighten the pressure gradient and cause some
gusty northwest winds during the day on Friday. There is not
plentiful low- level moisture and the snow growth zone should remain
unsaturated so upslope snow showers are not expected. However, it
should still be mostly cloudy. Temperatures during this period will
be around normal as highs on Friday will be in the upper 30s and 40s
and lows Friday night will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. If the
low does track farther west and bring more precipitation to the
region, highs will be a few degrees lower than currently
forecasting.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...The upper level trough will remain over
the North Country for the weekend so the roughly seasonable weather
should continue. A center of a weak surface low looks to pass by to
the south of the region on Sunday but it should be able to bring a
few light rain and snow showers to the North Country. Any
accumulations would be very minor and with temperatures above
freezing during the day, any snow would likely struggle to
accumulate at all. Ridging will briefly build in for the start of
the week so Monday should be mostly dry. However, temperatures look
to remain close to normal. A more significant storm system moves
into the North Country for mid-week. There is still too much
uncertainty this far out to provide many details. Ensembles are
split on precipitation type and timing but there is a decent
consensus that there will be a more significant amount of
precipitation with this storm.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...A mix of VFR and MVFR across the region
will continue through 00z this evening, with brief IFR due to
low ceilings possible at KMPV and KEFK during that time.
Ceilings will lower to IFR/MVFR thereafter and remain so through
the remainder of the TAF period. Showers will continue to
slowly push eastward and will remain focused over the VT
terminals into this evening before exiting to the east.
Additional precipitation will develop after 10z and remain over
mainly southern/eastern VT thereafter. Vsby reduced to 4-6SM in
any showers, and MVFR/IFR fog is possible at all VT terminals
after 00Z. S. Otherwise, surface winds will generally be 10 kt
or less from the SSE except locally NE at KMSS, with brief gusts
up to 20 kt through 22z.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Hastings
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Hastings


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