751
FXUS61 KBUF 300235
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1035 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross Lower Michigan tonight before slowly making
its way across our forecast area on Tuesday. This will end our
period of fair weather...as showers will become increasingly common
along with the risk for a few thunderstorms. Dry weather associated
with weak high pressure will return for Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/...
Regional radar shows scattered showers just northwest of the
Niagara Frontier and Saint Lawrence Valley late this evening. An
outflow boundary is evident on radar over eastern Lake Erie and
will move into western NY overnight.

Tonight...a negatively tilted mid level trough over the Upper Great
Lakes will shove its associated cold front across Lower Michigan and
southern Ontario. This in turn will help to ease the aforementioned
stalled frontal boundary back towards Lake Ontario. The lift
generated from this feature will keep showers in play east of Lake
Ontario...and after midnight we will also have to start watching to
our northwest where showers and storms associated with the
approaching cold front will be targeting our region.

On Tuesday...a wavy cold front will slowly work across our forecast
area. This will nearly GUARANTEE that Tuesday will be quite
unsettled with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Basin
average QPF should not exceed a quarter inch...although localized
amounts of up to a half inch will be possible in any stronger
convection. Despite the wealth of cloud cover and expected pcpn...
Tuesday will remain mild and relatively humid.

The showers will taper off from west to east late Tuesday and
Tuesday evening...as the cold front will exit via New England. While
the showers will move east overnight...clouds will be slow to clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front will quickly track through the Lower Lakes with little
fan fair (lack of moisture) Wednesday with dry weather and mild
conditions. Highs will range from the 60s east of Lake Ontario to
low/mid 70s elsewhere. A weak cold front passes through Wednesday
night but again lacks any support or moisture, so dry conditions
will likely continue. This same front then returns north on Thursday
but will likely not bring any showers to the region. Weak high
pressure will be in place Thursday night which will maintain dry
conditions through the end of this period. Temperatures will remain
above normal Thursday with highs mainly in the 70s, cooler near the
lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will move across the eastern Great Lakes region
Friday. Plenty of moisture and warm air advection will move into the
forecast area through Friday night. There is a low to medium chance
for showers with the greatest chance during the afternoon hours on
Friday. Model packages show the potential for two cold fronts to
move across the region this weekend. Confidence is low on the timing
of these cold fronts and therefore there are low to medium chances
for showers Saturday through Sunday night. Temperatures will remain
above normal Friday through the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions with ceilings above 5k feet are present across
western and north central NY this evening. A stationary front
lies across western NY with a light northeast flow on the north
side of the front. The front will move north tonight with clouds
and showers developing from the Finger Lakes region northward.
Showers are likely east of Lake Ontario the second half of the
night, however flight conditions should remain MVFR/VFR. To the
west, a cold front extends from Lower Michigan to Indiana with
numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of it. This
front will approach the region tonight, however most of the
showers will remain northwest of the region. There is greater
confidence in some showers brushing KIAG and KBUF the second
half of the night. Ceilings will lower from the west tonight
with MVFR/IFR conditions across most of the region by daybreak
Tuesday. The cold front will move across the entire region
Tuesday with steady, light to moderate showers moving west to
east through the day. Flight conditions will remain IFR or lower
through Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...Showers ending with MVFR to IFR cigs
Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh east to northeast winds have resulted in choppy conditions as
expected along the western south shores of Lake Ontario where Small
Craft headlines remain in place through this evening. Winds will
diminish tonight.

Otherwise no significant winds or waves are expected throughout
the week...with just periodic showers or thunderstorms a few
days.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...Apffel/HSK/JM/Thomas