245
FXUS61 KCAR 141745
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
145 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north across the area today. A weak cold
front sags southward into the area tonight and stalls over the
area through Thursday. High pressure builds in Friday. A front
approaches on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 pm update...
Quick update to tweak pops for the remainder of the afternoon.
Have ingested latest temps into the grids for tda with BGR
rising to higher than forecast even under onshore flow. No other
chgs needed with this update.

Previous discussion...
The upper ridge and dry air over the area will slowly move east
this morning. An area of precipitation currently in Ontario
associated with a warm front will lift north into the area this
morning. The precipitation will mainly affect the northern half
of the forecast area with a one or two tenths of an inch of
rainfall. Little to no rainfall is expected towards Bangor and
Downeast with this warm front. Both QPF and PoPs have been
lowered for most of the area with this forecast package.

The warm front will bring significantly more humid air this
afternoon. Dew points will be well into the 50s for western
zones by later this afternoon. While cloud cover will limit
highs to around 60F for much of the area, areas in southern
Penobscot and Piscataquis counties may see afternoon reading in
the mid to upper 60s. A weak cold front will sag southward
towards these western zones late this afternoon and spark some
shower activity. The best instability will be well southwest of
the area and will not include mention of any thunder.

The front stalls just west of the forecast area tonight with
some residual shower activity. Patchy fog and low clouds can be
expected to develop in the moist air mass ahead of the frontal
boundary under a steepening low level inversion. Warm air will
continue surging into the area ahead of the cold front. 925mb
temperatures will rise towards 15C during the night towards the
coast. Lows will be in the upper 40s to near 50F. The exception
will be along the coast where the cool onshore flow will
produce lows in the mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned front will remain stalled over the area for
Wednesday and Thursday and will weaken. At the same time, subtle
shortwaves will pass through. This will keep the threat of
showers both days, especially in the afternoons. Some guidance
is indicating some instability over central areas and perhaps
in the Bangor area on Wednesday. Thus, a thunderstorm or two is
not totally out of the question. However, there is still
uncertainty as to the placement of the boundary and how much
destabilization will take place. Opted not to put thunder in the
grids at this time due to low confidence. Shower chances
decrease Thursday night as a low pressure system passes far to
the south of the area.

High temperatures both days will be well into the 60s away from
the coast, with 50s at the coast. Lows both nights will be in
the upper 40s to lower 50s. Patchy fog will be possible both
nights due to light winds and abundant low-level moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will exert influence over the area on Friday. This
will result in at least partial sunshine for much of the day.
The air mass in place supports highs exceeding 70 degrees away
from the water outside the higher terrain. However, subtle
shortwaves passing through the flow could trigger some afternoon
showers. The 00z GFS shows enough instability for some thunder
as well, but other guidance is not as aggressive.

The shower threat decreases again Friday night into early
Saturday. A frontal system then approaches the area late
Saturday into Sunday with the threat of more showers. The system
is expected to be slow to move, so unsettled weather is likely
to continue into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Downeast terminals VFR this afternoon into the
evening before diminishing quickly to IFR late. BHB likely to
see IFR vsbys/cigs after 06z and LIFR between 08-13z in fog,
while BGR will drop to IFR after 08z and then improve to low
MVFR after this time.

FVE will be MVFR before dropping to IFR cigs after 07z and
eventually IFR vsbys. Improving back to MVFR after 14z.

Remainder of Aroostook terminals VFR in light showers before
dropping to MVFR after 07z tonight. Conditions will remain MVFR
through end of TAF valid period.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday...IFR or lower possible at Coastal terminals early AM
with BCFG. Otherwise mainly VFR/MVFR with -SHRA. Winds light and
variable.

Wednesday Night...Mainly IFR with patchy fog and -SHRA. Winds
light and variable.

Thursday-Thursday Night...Mainly VFR/MVFR with scattered -SHRA
on Thursday. MVFR/IFR with -SHRA and patchy fog Thursday night.
Winds E 5-10 kts on Thursday, becoming light and variable
Thursday night.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Some MVFR possible at Aroostook terminals
in the PM with -SHRA. Winds SE 5-15 kts.

Friday Night-Saturday...Mainly MVFR/IFR with scattered -SHRA
and patchy fog Friday night. MVFR with scattered -SHRA on
Saturday. Winds SE 5-15kts with gusts 20-25 kts on Saturday..

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: South winds continue through the period. Some gusts
over 15 kt are possible today, but will tend to decrease
tonight. Had to reduce model winds due to stability. Seas will
slowly build towards 3 feet today into this evening. Warmer and
more humid air moving over the cold waters will result in some
fog formation today and tonight.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria Wednesday and Wednesday night. Southerly swells could
increase wave heights to SCA levels on the outer waters Thursday
night into Friday morning. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions into
the weekend. Visibilities will be reduced in fog at times
through the end of the week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/MCW
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...Buster/MCW/Clark
Marine...Buster/MCW/Clark