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000
FXUS61 KCLE 160814
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
414 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Central Plains will lift a warm front
north across the area tonight into Wednesday. This system will
then extend a cold front east through the area by Wednesday
evening. Another cold front will cross the region towards the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridge of high pressure will build east this morning as a warm front
lifts northeast across the region. Forecast soundings indicate very
dry low levels present across much of the local area so continued
the trend of including NBM 10% for dew points this morning and
afternoon. Given the dry low levels, any showers that occur as the
warm front lifts overhead will struggle to produce much if any
precipitation beyond our extreme southwestern counties this
afternoon.

Continued dry period for most tonight before rain moves into the
region early Wednesday morning. Rain showers ahead of the surface
front associated with an upper shortwave should exit east by
Wednesday afternoon. A fairly moist airmass with dew points in the
upper 50s to lower 60s will allow for MUCAPE values to approach 1500-
2000 J/kg. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the western
half of our local forecast area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for
severe weather Wednesday afternoon. Tough to tell how much of the
area can clear out ahead of the surface front and thus severe
thunderstorm development is conditional how much we can destabilize
during peak heating. Given steep mid level lapse rates, deep layer
shear of 35-40 knots and a moist environment with low LCLs under 500
feet, all hazards are possible including large hail, tornadoes,
and damaging wind gusts. The best timing for strong to severe
storms will generally be between 2 and 8 PM Wednesday. Outside
of any severe threat, recent heavy rainfall may lead to areas of
localized flooding on Wednesday. Any thunderstorm that produces
heavy rainfall may lead to isolated flooding concerns. Overall
storm total rainfall amounts generally range between 0.50 and 1
inch.

Highs today will rise into the 70s for most as the warm front surges
northeast. Locations north of the warm front and along the lake
shore will likely struggle to reach 70 but will still rise into the
60s. Warm overnight lows in the mid 50s to near 60s degrees tonight.
We`ll remain in the warm sector for Wednesday and expect for another
day of highs in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing and progressing across the
forecast area early Wednesday night. It`s possible there may be a
severe weather threat ongoing early Wednesday night but
thunderstorms are likely to be in a decaying state as instability
dwindles after sunset.

A cold front extending from a slow-moving occluded low follows,
moving across the area Wednesday night, with rain showers likely
over by early Thursday morning. This low merges with another low
incoming from the northwest, with a reinforcing, secondary cold
front moving across the area Thursday night. This first front won`t
actually drop temperatures too much with highs in the 60s on
Thursday.

Rain showers are likely to accompany the second cold front with PoPs
increasing by 10-30% with this forecast iteration late Thursday
night through the day Friday as models trended higher in
precipitation chances and QPF. If this trend continues, would likely
see PoPs continue to increase the next couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures cool down post-frontal over the weekend as high
pressure builds in through Monday. Below normal temperatures are
expected with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s with some frost
possible, especially Sunday night into Monday morning when the
surface high is expected to be overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure ridging will continue to build eastward through
early this morning. A warm front will begin to lift
northeastward late this morning and afternoon. High level clouds
will enter from southwest and move northeastward through the TAF
period. Rain showers along the warm front will struggle to
reach most terminals this afternoon and evening as we remain
very dry in the low levels. For now, only have VCSH for showers
associated with the warm front at KFDY.

Shower coverage will then increase from west to east late
tonight into early Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Have begun
to introduce VCSH for these showers at KTOL/KFDY/KMFD and at the
30 hour KCLE TAF. Can`t rule out embedded thunder in showers
late tonight/early Wednesday but opted to leave any thunder
mention out of the TAF for now.

Somewhat light and variable winds overnight tonight become
generally easterly at 5-10 knots by late morning. Winds begin to
turn southeasterly near the end of the TAF period but will
generally remain between 8 and 12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms tonight
through Wednesday. Non-VFR may return by Friday into Saturday
in rain.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure departs to the east, with easterly winds strengthening
to in advance of an approaching warm front. A small craft advisory
was issued for waves of 3-5 feet and winds of 15-25 knots west of
Cleveland this afternoon through late tonight. The warm front
crosses the lake on Wednesday, followed quickly by a cold front
Wednesday afternoon/evening and then a reinforcing cold front
Friday. High pressure builds in through the weekend and early next
week. Small craft advisory conditions are most likely Friday
afternoon/night with westerly winds behind the secondary
reinforcing cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT
     Wednesday for LEZ142>146.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Saunders