Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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745 FXUS64 KCRP 150352 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1052 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate risk of rip currents Wednesday. - Slight chance (20%) for showers/storms late Wednesday night. Generally quiet and tranquil weather conditions can be expected across South Texas tonight through Wednesday under weak ridging aloft. At the surface, high pressure will continue to progress eastward through the period leading to a gradual return to a southeasterly flow overnight. Moisture will rapidly increase across the area as we head into the Wednesday night period owing to a more moderate flow developing over the coastal waters. PWATs are progged to increase to above 2" across some locations late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The combination of the plentiful available moisture and the arrival of a mid to upper level disturbance will provide a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the period. In terms of temperatures, lows tonight will be at near normal levels and in the mid 60s to low 70s. The rest of the period temperatures will be well above normal with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s range, and lows in 70s areawide. Cloud coverage will increase again tomorrow night. Along area beaches the rip current risk as been elevated to Moderate levels for Wednesday in response to a moderate onshore flow developing with swell heights increasing to around 3-4 feet with swell periods at 8 seconds. Although tide levels have been reaching 1.8 feet MSL at the time of high tide across the southern nearshore waters, no flooding has been observed. Tides will be a tad lower tomorrow, therefore not anticipating any coastal flooding hazards at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Key Messages: - Low to medium (20-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. - Elevated heat concerns possible Thursday and again early next week for the southern Coastal Plains. Not much has changed since the previous forecast. A series of shortwaves will result in the development of showers and thunderstorms Thursday. With strong instability (CAPE values 3000+ J/kg across portions of South Texas), and ample low level moisture, expect that thunderstorms could become severe so the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included the north and east portions of our area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. PWATs are expected to be at or slightly greater than 2.0 inches which could lead to localized flash flooding. This looks like it will be generally confined to the northeastern portions of the area, so WPC has included this in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Rainfall could continue into Friday as a cold front slides through Central and eventually...maybe...into South Texas. Temperatures are expected to warm through the middle of next week. Thursday and Friday, we will see highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. While this doesn`t sound too unpleasant, humidity values will be quite high Thursday which could lead to heat index values approaching 110 over portions of South Texas. Models have hinted that the heat risk will be slightly lower over the weekend, likely due to drier air moving in behind the cold front. This relief will be short-lived as temperatures increase again early next week, bringing back heat index values nearing 110. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Similar to last night with limited moisture in the region and high pressure. The only difference is that the high is now more to the east, and an area of low pressure is beginning to develop in northern Mexico. The low will keep the winds breezy in LRD and COT. The main issue for CRP, ALI, and VCT will be low CIGs and fog. The winds in the east are dropping off as the 3 eastern sites are now variable, and with the skies clear, fog is expected to develop sometime. The guidance would suggest between 08z and 12z, but based on last night, it could be around 06z and then nothing. So low confidence in the timing, but have MVFR VSBYs for 08z to 12 or 13z. Otherwise, Wednesday, and Wednesday evening look to be clear, although MVFR CIGs will begin to encroach on the region around 06z/THU. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Winds will shift to the southeast tonight and become light overnight. Weak to moderate onshore flow Wednesday morning will become more moderate Wednesday afternoon into the night. Moisture will increase across the waters through the day tomorrow. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday night through Thursday night. Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue through the middle of next week, with periods of more moderate flow expected Thursday across the southern bays and nearshore waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 70 91 78 90 / 0 0 20 20 Victoria 66 91 71 88 / 0 0 10 40 Laredo 71 98 78 99 / 0 0 10 10 Alice 68 94 77 94 / 0 0 10 30 Rockport 75 91 78 86 / 0 0 20 30 Cotulla 69 98 76 96 / 0 0 10 20 Kingsville 70 92 78 93 / 0 0 10 20 Navy Corpus 76 90 80 87 / 0 0 20 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM LONG TERM....LS AVIATION...JSL/86