112
ACUS03 KWNS 080731
SWODY3
SPC AC 080730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
parts of the Southeast.

...Southeast...
An upper trough should dig southeastward across the TN Valley and
Southeast on Friday. A belt of strong (50-65 kt) westerly mid-level
flow should be present over much of the Southeast through the
period. A cold front is forecast to continue moving south-
southeastward across the Deep South and Carolinas through the day.
There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the placement and
intensity of a possible MCS/small bowing cluster at the start of the
period Friday morning across parts of AL/GA. This cluster would
impact the potential for moderate instability to develop ahead of
the front through the day, as indicated by the 00 NAM. Other
guidance shows less instability and a farther southward placement of
convective redevelopment Friday afternoon, mainly over parts of
north FL/southern GA.

Given these substantial uncertainties, have opted to include a
fairly broad Marginal Risk from southern MS/AL into north FL and
much of GA/SC. This should account for thunderstorms that may form
along the front in the afternoon and subsequently spread
south-southeastward, and for any lingering threat with the possible
morning cluster. Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with
primarily linear convection forecast. But, some hail could also
occur with any semi-discrete thunderstorms given strong-deep-layer
shear expected. Any severe threat should diminish through Friday
evening with southward extent into north FL, and as convection moves
offshore the GA/SC Coast.

..Gleason.. 05/08/2024

$$