Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 161118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 AM CDT MON APR 16 2018

Northwest flow prevailing over the lower Missouri Valley this
morning as large upper low responsible for this past weekend`s
snow shower activity continues to slowly lift towards the Great
Lakes. Meanwhile to our west, upper ridging now beginning to slide
east from the central and northern Rockies this morning, which
will finally send the upper low on its merry way. The combination
of building heights aloft along with developing low-level warm
air advection will allow temps to moderate back into the upper 40s
to lower 50s this afternoon, with breezy northwest winds
gradually weakening and shifting to the west this afternoon. After
this past weekend, today should be a sorely needed reprieve, with
low clouds also expected to diminish through the day. All told,
today shouldn`t be too bad of a day, especially after this past
weekend.

Heading into tomorrow, upper low now digging across the West Coast
will track east from the Four Corners region by Tuesday evening.
Out ahead of this feature, leeside low pressure is expected to
track east from the Front Range during the day, which will help
lift a warm front north across our region. This, combined with
pronounced low-level thermal ridging will allow temps to warm well
into the middle to upper 60s, with low 70s likely south of the Hwy
50 corridor. Winds through the day should remain fairly light, so
get out and enjoy the pleasant weather if the opportunity
presents itself. Aforementioned sfc low pressure center is then
expected to pass over the region Tuesday night/early Wednesday as
main upper wave takes on a nice negative tilt, with strong
capping and poor timing preventing any convection from developing.
In fact, models remain in decent agreement that the only shower
activity can be expected north of Route 36 as the wave passes.

Concerns begin to rise on Wednesday as strong northwest winds push
over the region in a developing cold air advection regime. This
combined with low RH and still susceptible surface fuels will
lead to increased fire weather concerns. Fortunately fuels
continue to see green-up across the region, however available fuel
moisture intelligence still indicates some concern as fuels
continue their slow recovery following such a dry winter and early
spring. In any event, temps will be noticeably cooler on
Wednesday with dry conditions then expected through the conclusion
of the work week with continued seasonal temperatures.

Next weather maker expected to move into the region on Saturday as
a large upper low meanders across the Southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Vly. Based on latest model projections, upper low
should move far enough north to give the southern half of our
region a decent chance for rain, with the heaviest activity
expected across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Sadly, it
looks like another unsettle weekend with drier weather returning
through the day on Sunday. We just can`t seem to get nice weather
on a weekend, can we?

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT MON APR 16 2018

Satellite imagery showing persistent low stratus beginning to
break-up this morning as high pressure builds south into the
region. This should result in VFR conditions prevailing much of
the forecast period, however cannot totally rule out a brief
return to high-end MVFR cigs this morning. Currently however,
low confidence precludes a mention at MCI and MKC based on latest
observation and satellite trends. Otherwise, northwest winds will
weaken through the morning and afternoon as surface ridge axis
approaches.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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