Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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958 FXUS63 KEAX 020756 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 256 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong storms possible early this morning and again this afternoon with gusty winds to 50 mph the main threat. - Additional rainfall of 1-2" with locally higher amounts will pose a risk for localized flash flooding as well as river flooding. - Additional rounds of showers and storms this weekend. - Potential for severe storms on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Early this morning scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the area due to isentropic ascent on the 300-305K surfaces. This is occurring out ahead of a broken line of severe thunderstorms moving across central Kansas that developed overnight ahead of a cold front. These storms are expected to weaken below severe limits as they reach the area before sunrise this morning however, thunderstorms with gusty winds are still expected through the morning hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain across the area this late this morning into the early afternoon as a LLJ continues to nose in the area through that timeframe. As we move into the afternoon the cold front will push through the area. This will provide another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon however, severe weather potential will be limited due to the inability for the atmosphere to recover from morning storms. What may be of more concern is the flooding potential as PWATs will remain in the 1.50"-1.75" over the course of today. Additional precipitation amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts may lead to localized flash flooding and river flooding. Cloud cover and precipitation will keep highs in the 70s today. Storms are expected to exit the area tonight as surface high pressure build into the area. Surface high pressure will remain in control over the area Friday providing dry and pleasant condition with seasonable highs in the low to mid 70s. Friday night, a upper level trough will move from the western High Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will force a cold front through the area provide ascent for another round of showers and thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday morning. Another surface ridge of high pressure looks to build into the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Highs behind the front Saturday are expected to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. High pressure will remain in control most of Sunday however, a upper level shortwave trough will move from the southwestern CONUS into the Ozark by Sunday evening. Dry conditions over the area should keep the focus of storms associated with this system south of the area however, the extreme southern CWA may receive a few showers and storms. Highs Sunday will again remain seasonable in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Sunday night into Monday a strong upper level trough will move from the Four Corners region into the central Plains taking a negative tilt as it does so. Strong deep-layer shear and moisture will make the potential for severe weather possible although this time the better chance for severe weather would be west of the forecast area. However, this system will need to be monitored. With strong WAA out ahead of this system, highs on Monday will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning. Through the middle part of next week the region will be under zonal flow aloft. Subtle shortwave in zonal flow aloft may bring the chance for occasional scattered showers to the area. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Sct showers and thunderstorms are expected in the VC of the terminals thru 09Z. Aft 09Z a line of storms across central Kansas are expected to reach the TAF sites impacting the terminals thru 16Z-18Z aft which showers are expected til 21Z-23Z. Cigs are expected to be VFR around 4kft thru 13Z when cigs are expected to drop into MVFR btn 1-2kft. MVFR cigs are expected to persist thru 01Z-03Z before lifting to VFR. Winds will be out o the SE btn 10-15kts before becmg southerly btn 10-15kts aft 09Z. Btn 17Z-19Z a cold front will pass thru the TAF sites veering winds to the west btn 7-12kts thru 22Z before becmg northerly btn 5-10kts byd 22Z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...73