Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 171128
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
628 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 255 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2018

Upper-level ridging currently building into the region this
morning as next Pacific longwave trough digs across the Great
Basin and Intermountain West. This trough will continue working
east today with models in agreement that a leeside low will
develop over the High Plains of eastern Colorado by early
afternoon. To the east, a warm front will start lifting north by
mid to late afternoon as aforementioned low begins tracking east
with time. Just how far north the front makes it today remains the
big question, however general model consensus suggests feature
will make it to the Route 50 corridor by late afternoon, before
continuing its northward movement overnight as the low approaches
and eventually passes overhead. Its completely possible that the
warmest temps of the day occur after 6 PM based on expected timing
of warm front, with all models in further agreement that any
precip will be confined to areas along and north of Route 36 due
to strong capping further south. Rain, should it occur, will
quickly come to an end after sunrise Wednesday. Regardless of how
far the front makes it today, it should be a fairly nice day with
relatively light winds and seasonable temperatures.

Storm system to track east on Wednesday placing the lower Missouri
Valley in a cold air advection pattern. Concerns expressed
yesterday for increasing fire danger look to be a little lower
this morning as both GFS and NAM show a secondary cold front
sliding south over the region by Wednesday afternoon. This should
ultimately allow air of higher relative humidity content to
overspread the region, effectively lessening the fire danger a
tad. Regardless, minimum RH values in the 30-40% range along with
northwest winds of 20-25 mph will lead to an elevated fire danger
concern, but not as severe as how it appeared with yesterday`s
model runs.

Dry weather is then expected to persist through the remainder of
the work week before the next storm system begins impacting the
area on Saturday as a closed upper low begins passing to our
south. Just how much rain our region can expect remains highly
uncertain this morning, as the ECMWF and Canadian now keep our
region rain free due to upper dry air advection associated with a
a ridge axis which is expected to extend southwest from the
western Great Lakes. The GFS on the other hand does show
precipitation, at least for the southern half of the forecast
area both Saturday and Sunday. We can always keep our fingers
crossed for a nice weekend considering how the last few have been.
At this point, we deserve a nice weekend, don`t we?

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2018

Clouds centered between 4-5 kft will thicken across the region
as a warm front approaches from the south, with winds remaining
from the east generally between 10-15 kts. Main concern heading
into the overnight period will be increasing LLWS concerns as a
strong low-level jet overspreads the area. Have made an initial
mention with this issuance, and later updates can address further
if needed. Otherwise, MVFR cigs will move in after 06z as cooler
air surges southward.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ028-029-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32


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