Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 181915

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
215 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Issued at 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

A low level stratus deck has inhibited solar insulation and in turn
kept the area much cooler than the guidance was recommending.
Highs will barely reach into the 50s in the KC Metro area and that
is only if the slow clearing from the SW finally does make its
way north before the sun starts to sit. Northern Missouri will
most likely stay in the mid 40s today with little diurnal trend
due to the cloud coverage as well. Higher clouds will also be
making their way into the area behind this stratus deck as the
first signal of the next shortwave trough to affect the area. This
shortwave trough will exit the southern Rockies this evening
helping to develop a surface low over western Kansas. As this low
deepens it will help advect moisture from the Gulf of Mexico up
into our area with a warm front and occluded boundary providing
the lift necessary to make Monday a rather rainy day. The first
elevated boundary and isentropic accent will arrive near midnight
with some light rain showers possible as this feature moves from
the SW to NE. Frontogenesis over SE Kansas overnight will enhance
the warm frontal boundary and eventually allow wrap around
moisture and overrunning to push into our area Monday morning. A
strong low to mid level frontogenetic boundary will form just
south of the Missouri River after sunrise leading to a band of
moderate to heavy precipitation for a few hours as precip advects
along this W-E oriented boundary. PWAT values will be around 0.75"
which is near the 90% moving average so some areas may get rather
proficient precip rates of 0.25-0.5" an hour. Flash Flood
guidance is rather high with 1.75" in one hour or up to 3" for 6
hours so these rates should not result in flash flooding, but
some local streams and creeks may rise quickly where this area of
heavier precipitation falls. Overall this system will drop near
one inch of precipitation south of the Missouri River and between
0.25-0.5" to the north. The low will quickly move W to E across
Missouri with precipitation ending by late Monday afternoon into
the evening. A weak shortwave will follow this low creating chance
PoPs over northern Missouri tuesday morning that could result in
some mix of snow and rain as it pushes through with temperatures
staying rather cool in the mid to upper 40s.

Wednesday a southern return flow will start to develop allowing some
WAA to move into the area with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Mid
and upper level ridging will keep the area dry through the middle of
the week. The warmer trend will continue into Thursday with highs in
the mid to upper 60s.  The upper level ridge will break down quickly
as a shortwave trough moves across the Rockies Friday morning. This
will result in leeside troughing all along the central plains with a
low forming over central Kansas.  This low will push east developing
a warm front over eastern Kansas and western Missouri.  There is
some model disagreement on how active this boundary will be as
currently it mainly GFS that has QPF with the ECMWF and Canadian
delaying the low movement until Friday night.  With this model
disagreement the PoPs have remained in the Slight Chance to Chance
range until there is better agreement on timing.  The most likely
timeframe for precip would be late Friday afternoon into Saturday
and more over central Missouri than western.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2018

The forecast will start out with an MVFR ceiling over the area
that will eventually start to scatter out from the south this
afternoon. There is some uncertainty to if it will clear out
completely or just temporarily clear out in the afternoon, so the
scattering was put as a tempo in the TAF locations north of the
Missouri River. An approaching weather system will help bring
these ceilings back into the area along with some rain just after
midnight. This rain looks to be fairly steady through the end of
the TAF period with ceilings slowly dropping to IFR with
visibility dropping to MVFR as the rain continues into the




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