Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211732
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1232 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 303 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2018

Areas of rain showers along and ahead of a slow-moving, weak
frontal boundary will continue to shift eastward this morning,
departing the forecast area within the next few hours. A few
sprinkles may develop under the parent upper wave this afternoon;
otherwise, mainly dry conditions are expected through at least
Wednesday morning. Temperatures today will likely top out in the
70s as cloud cover lingers over the region through at least early
afternoon, then well-above normal temperatures will return Tuesday
and continue through the rest of the work week as a persistent
upper ridge broadens over central Canada and allows an expanse of
+15 to +20 C 850 hPa temperatures to spread through the length of
the central and eastern Plains.

Rain chances continue to diminish for midweek in this dry, quiet
large scale pattern, although any High Plains convection that
develops could reach western or northern portions of the forecast
area as it decays, and have kept slight to lower-end chance PoPs
to account for the propagation of such system into the CWA.

Wetter weather looks probable for the coming holiday weekend,
when the EC and all GEFS members break down eastern portions
of  the upper ridge with troughing across the Great Lakes and
northwest flow edging into the eastern Plains. Currently it
appears the best chance for precipitation will come Friday night
through Saturday before the trough shifts off to the east, but
timing will change, and the progressive, convective nature of the
precipitation will keep the entire weekend from being a washout.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 21 2018

Lingering MVFR stratus should slowly erode through the early to
mid-afternoon hours. Surface winds will slacken overnight as high
pressure builds into the area. Overnight fog is possible,
depending on how quickly residual cloud cover clears. May need to
further reduce conditions in subsequent forecasts depending on
these trends. Conditions should then improve by the mid-morning
Tuesday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Welsh



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