000
FXUS63 KEAX 150825
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
325 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms return this evening/tonight. Low probability of
  a strong storm this evening/early tonight.

- One or two rounds of thunderstorms expected Tuesday
  morning/afternoon. Some of these storms may be severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Main focus within this forecast package centers on the convective
evolution over the next 40 hours, and its respective uncertainty.

Weather should remain tranquil for much of the daylight hours today,
with scattered convection developing within WAA/increasing ascent by
early evening across portions of the CWA. Forecast soundings and
CAMs suggest this activity will be elevated in nature and not rooted
near the surface. Modest instability (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) and
strong shear (45 kts 0-6km) will be present, so cannot rule out a
couple strong storms in theory, albeit lapse rates are relatively
meager compared to points west. CAMs largely hold off any robust
reflectivity during the evening into the early morning hours, with
general showers and thunderstorms depicted. With the position of the
closed low and WAA regime, this seems reasonable that the overall
severe threat will be limited today/early tonight.

One change from the past few days is a slightly faster forward speed
and more easterly jog of the closed low on Tuesday. The potential
effect of this appears to invigorate convection early Tuesday
morning around sunrise ahead of the strongest ascent with the upper
low, with a band of convection moving eastward across the CWA just
ahead of the Pacific cold front. Some model members suggest a few
strong to severe storms evolving along this band between 12-18Z
window, with the greatest intensity closer to the Iowa border in a
region of strong ascent and better lapse rates with proximity to the
upper low. Storm mode is also in question with this early morning
activity.

Thereafter, uncertainty grows with respect to destabilization in the
wake of morning activity. Additionally, the eastward jog of the low
places a portion of the CWA underneath the upper jet axis/speed max,
with some subsidence noted during the afternoon. There is some
potential, especially closer to the Iowa border within the left exit
region, for renewed robust development during the afternoon hours
along the front - assuming sufficient destabilization materializes.
These storms would have the potential to be supercells, with all
modes of severe weather possible.

Temperatures cool and even fall below normal by late week into the
weekend. Approaching upper wave may provide another shot at rainfall
on Thursday into Thursday night, with mostly dry weather for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions should prevail for a few more hours, but increasing
signal for low-level stratus to develop prior to sunrise. Cloud
heights could be as low as 1500ft. Look for cigs to rise by late
morning into the early afternoon, with a return to VFR.
Scattered showers will develop by 00z near terminal space.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Blair