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000
FXUS66 KEKA 101106
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
406 AM PDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions for today and Thursday, then a
short and a bit damp cool down for Friday and into the weekend, then
back to a warmer and dry conditions for the next work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Expected high amplitude upper level high pressure
influence today and tomorrow before the long expected highly
amplified longwave trough with a closed low at the base approaches
the west coast.

Widespread agreement among ensembles indicates continued high
confidence in the scenario. Also high confidence of the closed low
focused farther to the south as it moves east onto the west coast.
With the summer-like pattern will come night time stratus, which
should burn off at least partially by afternoon.

Although a cold front passes through Friday and an occluded front
hangs out this weekend, extending from the surface low to the
south, much of the forcing will remain just south of the County
Warning Area (CW). Nonetheless, rain amounts will generally not
be impressive according to ensemble members and continue to trend
toward lesser amounts. Not much of a chance at all of over 1 inch
for most areas from Friday through Sunday. There is about a 30-50%
chance of over half inch for most areas, and perhaps a 60-70%
chance of precip over half and inch for the King Range. Snow
potential is nearly non- existent with this relatively warm
system. Models are still picking up on enough instability over
Trinity County to include thunder for Friday afternoon/evening.
Ensembles are pointing toward a rather breezy Monday and Tuesday
afternoon/evening over the marine zones, making their way just on
to the coast. Some ensemble members are pointing toward a
particularly strong wind gust situation over the northern waters
compared to what happens climatologically.

/MH

&&

.AVIATION...Summer-like conditions will continue for this TAF
period. Coastal stratus will linger just off the coast as slight
offshore flow is keeping ACV stratus free. Any remaining stratus is
expected to recede later in the morning. This afternoon, winds along
the coastal sites are forecast to gust to 20 mph out of the
northwest. Interior areas can expect mostly clear skies and VFR
conditions through the TAF period. Coastal stratus and temporary
periods of mist are expected to affect the coast again by early
tomorrow morning.


&&

.MARINE...High pressure has entered into the region and has produced
breezy northerlies across the waters. Winds up to 20 knots are
possible in the northern waters today, and up to 30 knots in the
southern waters, with locally higher winds downwind of Cape
Mendocino. This pattern will continue through Friday. The sea state
will consist of steep northerly wind waves and a series of mid-to-
late northwesterly swells, with the highest combined significant
wave heights Wednesday and Thursday of up to 12 feet. A low pressure
system entering the waters on Thursday and Friday will disrupt this
pattern.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455-475.

&&

$$

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