999
AXPZ20 KNHC 070958
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue May 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N98W to low pres
1010 mb near 10N109W to 07N113W. The ITCZ extends from 07N113W
to 04N127W to beyond 05N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is noted from 01N to 08N between 91W and 104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered NE of Hawaii extends a broad ridge
southeastward over the offshore waters of Mexico to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressure across interior Mexico is supporting
moderate to fresh NW winds offshore the peninsula, with fresh
winds mainly between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Seas with
these winds are in the range of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell, highest N
of Punta Eugenia. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are light
and variable with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere across the S and SW
Mexican offshore waters, winds are light to gentle, except along
the coastal waters of Guerrero and Oaxaca where moderate W to NW
winds are noted. Seas in with these winds in the S and SW Mexican
offshore waters remain 5 to 6 ft in mixed S and SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the local area will
shift NE throughout the week, and act to weaken the pressure
gradient across the Baja California offshore waters. This will
lead to the continuation of moderate NW winds across the Baja
Peninsula waters through Thu, with small areas of locally fresh
winds developing near the coasts each afternoon and evening. As
the high pressure shifts northeastward, NW winds will increase
across the near and offshore waters of California, with fresh NW
winds extending southward to the Baja Norte waters NW of
Guadalupe Island. Associated NW swell will continue to move into
the area offshore waters through the week, with seas in excess of
8 ft persisting across the waters north through west of Punta
Eugenia through Thu afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore
waters through Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are coming off the coast of
Colombia into the Gulf of Panama likely supporting strong to
gusty winds and moderate to rough seas. Over the remainder
Central America offshore waters, winds remain light and variable
and seas moderate to 6 ft in S swell. Between the coast of
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly gentle to
moderate from the S to SE with 5 to 6 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, S to SE winds south of 05N will become S to SW
and increase to moderate to locally fresh speeds from this morning
through Thu. Light to gentle variable winds will be prevalent
elsewhere along with moderate seas in S swell. Heavy showers and
thunderstorms will expand from the Gulf of Panama to the offshore
waters of Costa Rica today and prevail at least through Thu. Otherwise,
southerly swell will maintain seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos
Islands through early Fri, increasing to 6 to 8 ft in S swell
Fri afternoon through Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1029 mb high pressure is centered NE of Hawaii near 36N145W and
extends a ridge south and southeastward across the subtropical
waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate N-NE winds
are noted between 115W and 125W, then become NE to E-NE to the
west of 125W. Seas across this area N of 20N are 6-8 ft in NW
swell. S of 20N, between the ridge and the ITCZ and W of 120W,
moderate to fresh NE winds and 7-8 ft seas in NE swell prevail.
South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to E winds are noted
with 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed SE and SW swell. Elsewhere, light
to gentle variable winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western
part of the tropical waters will prevail through this afternoon
then gradually diminish to moderate speeds through Fri as high
pressure to the north shifts northeastward. Seas with these winds
will be 6 to 8 ft, and will subside tonight into Wed. NW swell
across the Baja California Norte waters will build through mid
week to produce seas of 8 ft and greater mainly N of 25W and E of
130W Wed through Thu night. The seas there will subside below 8
ft late Thu night.

$$
Ramos