Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
573 FXUS64 KEPZ 110525 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1125 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Besides a few showers and thunderstorms far east and northern areas over the next day, dry conditions will continue for much of the next week. Temperatures will remain near average with 80s for the lowlands and 70s in the mountains. Winds will continue to be breezy to low end windy through the period as well. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 Upper low currently spinning around KLAS with SW flow aloft, but this has also allowed the dryline to push west into the CWA. Moisture not overly deep, especially from the Rio Grande westward. The models are not handling this feature real well, but this is one of the times the NAM does a decent job. What this means is the moisture will start to quickly push back to the west around sunset and possibly make it out to the AZ border. Gusty east winds expected behind it, especially on the west slopes of the Franklins and the Organs. Could see gusts over 40 mph this evening, but they will gradually decrease overnight. Models putting out some light QPF east and north tonight and again Sat afternoon. There is a weak disturbance and some elevated instability which could be tapped in Hudspeth and Otero counties, so kept in mention, but did taper back from mid shift and NBM. For Sat, the upper low off to the west starts to move east and upper flow increases which will push moisture out of much of the CWA, but still linger out along the eastern border where some more showers and t-storms are possible. High temperatures will generally be in the mid 80s to around 90 for the lowlands, but in the far east, could struggle to get out of the lower 80s. Sunday the upper low passes to our north and this will push any residual moisture off to the east. Temperatures will cool slightly but winds will be in the 15-25 mph range. West to slightly northwest winds should help to keep dust to a minimum. Models agree in some marginal moisture making it into the far northern CWA for early next week as a trough moves through the northern and central Rockies with a weaker southern branch crossing along the International Border later in the week. Kept in the 10-20 pops for most every day next week. Do not see much of an impact from rainfall, but may need to watch a dry lightning potential. Temperatures remain near normal. Models differ going into Friday with the operational GFS bringing an elongated trough down through the CWA with plenty of precip. This solution is by far an outlier compared to it`s ensembles and the EC solution. Will lean more toward the NBM and EC which push trough through the area and allow temperatures to remain warm. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period, with SCT100 SCT-BKN250. Surface winds southeast 10-15G25 knots from Deming east, and west/southwest 7-10 knots west of Deming. Winds becoming southeast all areas by 12Z as the dry-line reaches the Arizona border. After 18Z...SCT080 SCT250. Slight possibility of isolated BKN060CB -TSRA, mainly from a Alamogordo-Sierra Blanca line east. Surface winds turning back southwest 10-15G25 knots as dry-line reverts back eastward. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri May 10 2024 There will be another moisture push through much of the area this evening, but it will be short lived and any precip will remain far east. This moisture will quickly get pushed out of the area by Sunday with breezy conditions continuing. Another system will bring in some very marginal moisture for early next week from the north. At this time, the best precip chances for our zones would be Catron and Lincoln counties, but these chances aren`t great. In fact, the potential exists that some dry lightning could occur Mon/Tue. Little change going into Wednesday, although this does look like the windiest day of the next 5 as winds of 15-30 mph are possible. RH`s will remain at or below 15 percent for the period except far east Saturday and then in the mountains where 10-20% will be more prevalent through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 61 90 58 87 / 10 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 57 84 55 82 / 20 20 20 0 Las Cruces 56 88 50 86 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 54 84 49 83 / 30 30 10 0 Cloudcroft 42 61 38 59 / 30 30 20 0 Truth or Consequences 53 84 52 83 / 10 10 0 0 Silver City 46 78 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 50 87 47 84 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 47 83 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 87 55 85 / 10 10 0 0 Dell City 56 83 51 86 / 30 30 10 0 Fort Hancock 58 92 52 88 / 10 20 10 0 Loma Linda 55 81 51 79 / 20 20 10 0 Fabens 59 91 54 88 / 10 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 56 86 49 83 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 87 57 84 / 10 10 0 0 Jornada Range 53 85 44 84 / 20 10 0 0 Hatch 52 87 45 85 / 10 10 0 0 Columbus 54 87 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 84 50 82 / 20 20 10 0 Mayhill 45 71 43 71 / 40 40 20 0 Mescalero 44 71 42 70 / 30 30 20 0 Timberon 43 71 40 69 / 30 30 10 0 Winston 46 76 40 76 / 10 10 0 0 Hillsboro 49 82 45 80 / 10 10 0 0 Spaceport 50 83 46 82 / 10 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 35 76 33 75 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 43 81 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 41 82 40 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 77 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 47 79 44 77 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 47 84 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 49 85 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 85 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 79 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira