189
FXUS64 KEWX 021901
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
201 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A slowly moving boundary can be seen on radar near New Braunfels
extending southeast into Gonzales. This boundary has served somewhat
of a focus for shower and isolated thunderstorm development in this
general area over the last several hours. High-res models continue
to struggle with making sense of this overly saturated chaotic
atmosphere with storms primarily driven off of mesoscale features.
Most of the CAMs show a lull in activity in the late afternoon
hours, but not too convinced with this quite yet and will leave some
low PoPs in the forecast through the late afternoon hours. The main
focus for additional activity this evening will be to the northwest
once again near a surface low near Abilene. This activity may track
into our northern Hill Country and northern I35 corridor counties
this evening. Can`t rule out some strong to severe activity as the
storms make it into South-Central Texas around 10 pm and the latest
Day 1 Outlook from SPC has this area in a Level 2 out of 5 (slight)
risk. This activity should diminish by 1 AM or so.

For the rest of the overnight period, patchy fog, isolated showers,
or drizzle will be possible through the morning hours. Low
temperatures will be warm once again, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
For tomorrow, expect another day of shower and thunderstorm chances
to primarily be driven by mesoscale processes for the most part for
our eastern half in a chaotic and moist airmass. There is some
signal for a decent chance of storms moving into our Rio Grande
counties from the west as some upper support arrives to the area in
the form of a weak shortwave. There is a level 1 (marginal) risk in
the Day 2 outlook for this activity. Highs tomorrow will be in the
80s and 90s. Isolated showers and storms will be mainly favored in
the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande tomorrow night and
will keep 20-30 PoPs there. Otherwise, lows will be back in the
upper 60s to middle 70s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A shallow upper level trough over the southwest will keep
southwesterly flow over TX through the weekend. A series of
shortwave troughs will move through this pattern generating chances
for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Convection will
initiate along a dryline in west TX and over the mountains in Mexico
and move toward the east. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms
will be across the northern and western parts of our CWA. There may
be sufficient bouyancy and vertical wind shear for storms to be
strong to severe. A low amplitude ridge will push up from the Gulf
bringing dry weather. This ridge will settle over the region for the
first half of next week. This will lead to warming temperatures with
highs reaching the lower to middle 90s over the eastern half of the
CWA and upper 90s to near 105 over the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Scattered showers and MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities continue
across the I35 sites early this afternoon. Expect this to continue
through at least the middle portions of the afternoon. More robust
thunderstorm activity will likely remain west of AUS later this
evening and will not include the mention of that for now. Should see
VFR later today, but another round of MVFR/IFR can be expected
tonight once again at all TAF sites. Additional scattered showers
and maybe a storm can be expected as well tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  85  71  86 /  30  30  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  84  70  85 /  30  30  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  86  71  89 /  20  30  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            68  83  69  83 /  30  30  20  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  96  74  92 /  10  40  30  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  83  69  83 /  40  30  10  30
Hondo Muni Airport             72  88  70  89 /  20  20  20  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  84  70  87 /  30  30  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   71  83  72  86 /  40  30  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  86  72  87 /  20  20  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           73  87  72  89 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...05
Aviation...29