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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 250350
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
850 PM MST Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Slightly cooler and windy conditions today will give way
to cooler and unsettled conditions for the second half of the week.
Chance for showers arrive Thursday and again by late Friday and into
Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...Fairly quiet across the state this evening. The strong
southwest winds from this afternoon are starting to lose their
gustiness this evening and should drop off more as we head into
the overnight hours. CAMs continue to lend confidence to some
showers and isolated thunderstorms developing during Thursday
morning, especially across portions of Yavapai and Coconino
counties. As we move through the day there should be some
expansion of storm coverage, though it looks like the majority of
the activity will be along the Mogollon Rim and areas to the north
and east.

With all of that in mind, only made some minor edits to the
forecast to account for the increasing cloud cover and some slight
timing adjustments in the PoPs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /434 PM MST/...Low pressure off the Pacific
coast is upping the winds this afternoon and increasing moisture
in the SW. This can be noted with the growing cumulus cloud deck
over the Kaibab. Moisture will continue to increase over the
coming hours ahead of the systems arrival.

Tonight into early tomorrow morning, CAMs are in good agreement
that as the low traverses the SW, a band of showers and storms
will develop and move across Yavapai county, heading northeast to
the Mogollon Rim. Because of the agreement, thunderstorm chances
were hand forced upward as larger scale and blended models are not
handling this well.

After tomorrow morning, the remainder of Thursday will feature
more widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity generally
along and north of the Whites/Mogollon Rim, and Kaibab. Still
overall moisture availability remains low with this first system
and most will see a tenth of an inch or less in liquid
precipitation.

Friday will be mostly dry as we briefly get sandwiched between
the departing first system and another trough starts to dive south
into the region. This will keep the winds elevated during the day
and could pose a limited fire weather concern closer to the White
Mountains Region: green-up conditions will largely limit fuels
from being available though.

Friday night into early Saturday morning the trough will traverse
the area, bringing widespread rain chances to the region. Snow
levels still remain elevated, only dipping down to around 7000
feet for a few hours Saturday AM before climbing again. Thus,
accumulating snowfall will be limited to elevations of 8000 feet
and above. As the trough moves east, instability and lingering
moisture will help drive additional showers and storms Saturday
afternoon. Greater coverage and confidence in them occurring will
be along the higher terrain where orographic influence will aid
in development. Greater moisture availability and dynamics with
the second system will help contribute greater precipitation
amounts:
most in Northern Arizona will at least receive a wetting rainfall,
with high confidence in many higher elevation locations
receiving-2 tenths of an inch in liquid precipitation.

After Saturday, zonal flow sets up over the region and
temperatures will be moderating with lighter winds. By Tuesday
next week temperatures will start to run almost 10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 25/00Z through Friday 26/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected. MVFR conditions continue near KPAN due to
FU/HZ. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA increase from west to east after 15Z, with
localized MVFR possible. S-SW winds 10-20 kts, gusting up to 35
kts, becoming 10 kts or less after 03Z. SW winds increase to
15-25 kts after 15Z/Thu with gusts up to 40 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 26/00Z through Sunday 28/00Z...ISO -SHRA/-TSRA
through 00Z/Thu. Additional showers expected after 18Z/Fri,
increasing from NW to SE. Gusty SW winds expected Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected to begin early Thursday, with drier
conditions forecast overnight. More widespread storms will pick up
by Friday afternoon. Southwest winds 15-25 mph, gusting 30-40 mph
each afternoon.

Saturday through Monday...Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms continue through Saturday, with warmer and drier
weather returning by Sunday. West winds 15-25 mph on Saturday, west
winds 5-15 mph on Sunday and light southwest winds on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/RKR
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola/Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff