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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211615
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
915 AM MST Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions continue for the start of the
upcoming week. Cooler, more unsettled conditions look to return by
the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...Not much to talk about this morning with zonal flow well
established across the region. While we remain fairly cloudless
this morning, expect some clouds to develop through this
afternoon, especially along the ridge lines of the higher
terrain. Light winds will become a little gusty through the
afternoon but still generally around 20 mph or less. Overall, a
beautiful way to start to a new week. Enjoy!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /425 AM MST/...through Tuesday...Zonal flow with weak mid-level
moisture will keep warm temperatures, occasional high-clouds, and
typical afternoon breezes in the forecast through the first few
days of the upcoming week.

Wednesday through Saturday...A closed-low over the Pacific begins to
make it`s approach by the middle of next week. As it draws closer,
heights begin to fall across Arizona and temperatures follow suit,
with afternoon highs falling by 20-30 deg F by the end of the week.

Southwesterly winds also look to be a bit more breezy during the
afternoons, but gusts are largely expected to remain under 20-30
mph. Overall moisture with the system looks to be limited and mainly
concentrated in the mid-levels. Thus, a couple high-based showers
and possibly a thunderstorm look probable for Thursday. Brief gusty,
erratic winds will be possible with any stronger shower, given the
low-level dry air. That being said, the vast majority of the area
will remain dry.

The only exception to the above looks to be Saturday, as a secondary
more powerful trough moves into the southwest. Stronger southwest
winds look possible during the afternoon on Saturday as the trough
approaches. Moisture also looks to be a bit more plentiful with this
second system, however amounts will likely still be minimal.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 21/12Z through Monday 22/12Z...VFR conditions
and light winds.

OUTLOOK...Monday 22/12Z through Wednesday 24/12Z...VFR conditions
with daytime sfc winds S-SW10-20g25-30kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Warm and dry conditions both
days. Light and variable winds Sunday becoming southwest 15 to 25
mph on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly dry and turning cooler each day.
Gusty southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph, with gusts from 30 to 40
mph each day. A slight chance of showers arrives Thursday. Wetting
rains are not likely.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/Humphreys
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff