Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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255 FXUS65 KFGZ 031732 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1032 AM MST Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions are expected today with breezy afternoon winds. Winds increase on Saturday, peaking on Sunday, and remaining gusty through the start of the week. Temperatures will dip a bit on Sunday and Monday but warm back up for the middle of the week. A few showers may cross the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday. Otherwise, it looks pretty dry through the next week. && .UPDATE...Another warm, mostly dry and breezy day is in store for today. A few more high clouds will be noted across northern Arizona throughout the afternoon, but that will be the biggest change from yesterday to today. A strong trough is still looking to dip across the region over the weekend, increasing winds both Saturday and even more so on Sunday. We`ll be looking at a wind- related product for much of our CWA for Sunday, but decisions on that will be decided with the afternoon forecast package. For now, the previous forecast remains largely on track. && .PREV DISCUSSION /327 AM MST/...Warm and dry conditions will continue for today before we start to see the effects of a deep upper low tracking towards the Great Basin. Seasonably warm temperatures across the region with southwest winds gusting up to 20-25 mph through the afternoon. A deep upper level low will track across the Pacific northwest and digs southward into the Great Basin by late Saturday. Ahead of this low we will see winds start to increase with gusts on Saturday around 25-35 mph. Conditions will remain dry on Saturday with near- seasonable temperatures. As we move into Sunday, the low will be crossing the Great Basin and should pass to the north of our area. Even though this low has limited moisture associated with it by the time it reaches our area, there may be enough moisture to squeeze out a few showers across the Kaibab Plateau on Sunday and possible over the higher elevations of the Chuska Mountains. Most areas will remain dry as the low moves through. Temperatures take a dip on Sunday, falling around 5-10 degrees below normal. The main impacts from this low will be the winds. The gradient tightens up quite a bit and there is the potential for winds to gust around 40-50 mph, possibly higher to the east of Flagstaff. As far as headlines go, winds may remain just below advisory levels on Saturday but Sunday looks like it will be more widespread advisory level winds with the potential for some spots to hit warning criteria. Will hold off on any headlines with this package and let let the next shift get a better handle on where the strongest winds may occur. Stay tuned for updates on the winds! With the strong winds and dry conditions, it will raise the potential for near critical fire weather concerns. The most likely areas will be across northeastern Arizona where RH values will drop below 15% during Sunday afternoon. The limiting factor may be the fuels but definitely something else to keep our eyes on. As the low passes to the north and east, we should see better conditions return through the week. Winds will remain breezy on Monday with cooler temperatures still hanging around the region. Temperatures will moderate and warm slightly as we go through the week with winds dropping off and just the typical afternoon breezes expected. && .AVIATION...Friday 03/18Z through Saturday 04/18Z...Expect VFR conditions with scattered mid-level clouds. Winds will be out of the west-southwest at 10-20 kts until 02Z, becoming light and variable through most of Saturday morning. OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/18Z through Monday 06/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions will persist but with increasing clouds Saturday night into Sunday. Southwest winds at 25-30 kts on Saturday strengthening to sustained at 25-35 kts gusting to 40-55 kts on Sunday. Minor to moderate turbulence is likely on Sunday. Periods of MVFR visibility in blowing dust are likely from KINW-KSJN-KRQE northward for Sunday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Mild and dry conditions persist for today and Saturday with high temperatures roughly 5 degrees above average and widespread minimum humidity of 10 to 20%. An increasing trend of southwest winds will develop and continue through Saturday. Expect gusts of 15 to 30 mph for this afternoon, followed by 25 to 35 mph on Saturday. Sunday through Tuesday...Southwest winds become strong on Sunday with widespread gusts of 40 to 55 mph. Areas prone to downsloping winds, including along and directly east of the Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, and across portions of the Navajo Nation, will experience even stronger winds of 60+ mph for much of the day. Areas of critical fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday, especially across northeast Arizona, where minimum humidity of 15% is forecast. The winds decrease by Sunday night, remaining breezy 20 to 35 mph from the west for Monday and Tuesday afternoon`s. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny/Meola AVIATION...McCollum FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff