943
FXUS65 KFGZ 030543
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1043 PM MST Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and locally breezy conditions continue again
Friday. However, wind speeds begin to increase Saturday, becoming
strong on Sunday, especially north and east of the Mogollon Rim.
This will be a mainly dry pattern, the main impacts will be the
winds and a noticeable cooling trend Sunday and Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...It`s a quiet night weather-wise across the state. Breezy
winds from earlier this afternoon are starting to drop off. Overnight
lows should be near to a bit above average for early May. No
updates to the forecasts are needed this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /455 PM MST/...A fair and mild day is expected for
the rest of today and again Friday. Daytime winds will remain
fairly light, but a few areas in the High Country may see gusts
from 20-25 mph. Things start to turn much windier over the
weekend, as a strong trough impacts the west.

A deep, late-season upper low will enter Northern California on
Saturday, then will move east-southeast through the Great Basin on
Sunday and across the Rockies on Monday.

This trajectory will keep us fairly dry, but will be a major wind
producer, especially on Sunday, as a cold front moves through our
area. We expect winds to hit just under Wind Advisory criteria on
Saturday. However, Sunday will feature a fairly large area of Wind
Advisory criteria, maybe some High Wind Warning criteria east of
Flagstaff.

Additionally, low relative humidity values will occur within the
areas featuring the strongest winds Sunday afternoon. There has been
some discussion concerning fuels and how dry we actually are, with
lowland grasses already curing, but a robust green-up now underway
on the Mogollon Rim. At the very least, areas north and east of the
Mogollon Rim may be near Critical Fire Weather conditions for Sunday
afternoon, but further analysis of fuels may necessitate a Red Flag
Warning.

After our cool day on Sunday, winds will back off a bit, but will
remain breezy into the early part of next week. We remain dry and
temperatures will recover to near normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 03/06Z through Saturday 04/06Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the TAF period, with scattered afternoon
cumulus over higher terrain (bases 8-12k ft agl). Light winds
overnight, becoming W-SW 10-15 kts after 18Z Friday and continuing
through around 02Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/06Z through Monday 06/06Z...VFR conditions expected.
Increasing cloud cover Saturday night and Sunday, with a low chance
(10%) of light showers from KFLG north and west Sunday afternoon.
SW wind gusts 25-35 kts on Saturday, becoming 40-50 kts on Sunday
with some localized gusts near 60 kts possible in downslope regions
north of the Mogollon Rim.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Warm/dry weather expected
to continue. Look for west-southwest winds 5-15 mph on Friday,
becoming south-southwest winds 10-20 mph, gusting 25-35 mph on
Saturday. Minimum RH values will be 10-20%.

Sunday through Tuesday...Cooler temperatures and very windy
conditions expected on Sunday, with increasing Min RH values.
Southwest winds 30-40 mph, gusting 45-60 mph. Localized areas
along and just north of higher terrain could see even stronger
winds. Temperatures will warm Monday and Tuesday, with breezy
afternoon conditions.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ/Peterson
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff