890
FXUS64 KFWD 050448
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1148 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Sunday night/

Thunderstorms will continue to move across North and Central
Texas overnight. Most of the storms have stayed below severe
limits but we did received a few hail reports. We have seen
impressive rainfall totals across portions of West Central Texas
this evening with some amounts exceeding 5 inches in a few hours.
The highest total we have seen through late evening was almost 8
inches of rain at Hamilton. The eastern half of the CWA has not
seen much rain this evening but it will come overnight with the
arrival of a shortwave. We still anticipate the heaviest rainfall
south of I-20 near and just north of a stalled frontal boundary,
but with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches region-
wide, just about any location could receive appreciable rainfall.
Therefore, we will keep a Flood Watch in place for the entire CWA
overnight through Sunday morning. Storms will end from west to
east Sunday morning with increasing subsidence on the backside of
the departing shortwave. However, with the surface boundary
stalling across parts of Central Texas and deep moisture remaining
in place, we could still see a few showers and storms developing
Sunday afternoon, especially across our Central Texas counties.
Any storms that do manage to form should dissipate during the
evening.

Saturated ground and a relatively light wind Sunday night will
promote fog development. Since low clouds will also be present, we
don`t anticipate widespread dense fog, but the visibility in some
spots could fall to around 1 mile.

Temperatures tonight and Sunday night will remain mild due to
plenty of moisture and clouds with lows staying in the 60s. Highs
Sunday will slowly warm into the 70s to around 80 degrees.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 322 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024/
/Sunday Night Onward/

Any lingering or secondary convection on Sunday will dissipate
after sunset with the loss of instability. The return of warm/moist
advection aloft, lingering moisture, and light east to southeast
surface winds will lead to more drizzle and fog formation
overnight. Will indicate some visibility drops of 1 to 4 miles in
drizzle/fog but nothing dense at this time. Visibility will
improve around midday with boundary layer mixing.

An active weather pattern will remain in place, however, due to
the development of a longwave trough across the CONUS, the
resulting cyclonic flow aloft, and the presence of a dryline to
our west. Isolated thunderstorms may occur both Monday and
Tuesday, but a strong capping inversion will keep storm coverage
low and most areas rain-free. Hopefully this cap holds, otherwise
surface based CAPE of 4000-5000 j/kg along with 40-50 kt of
effective shear will cause any storm which develops to become
rapidly severe.

Better storm chances will begin on Wednesday as a shortwave
crosses the Plains and the dryline advances east into North and
Central Texas. Convection developing near the dryline should begin
farther east and become more widespread than previous days due to
added lift associated with the shortwave. At this time, position
of the dryline and convective initiation looks to be somewhere
near the I-35 corridor. In addition, a cold front will slowly
approach, which may provide an added focus for development
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Instability and deep layer shear
will again be sufficient for the development of severe storms.

The front will sag south into Central Texas on Thursday, shifting
convection and the severe threat south of the I-20 corridor as a
second shortwave moves overhead. The front will continue to push
slowly south, forcing thunderstorm development farther south
into South Central and Southeast Texas on Friday. The upper trough
will shift to the eastern third of the CONUS Friday into
Saturday, sending a second push of cooler post-frontal air into
the region and making for a dry and pleasant start to next
weekend. Next Sunday may see a return of clouds and low rain
chances in the afternoon and evening, but most locations should
experience pleasant weather for Mother`s Day.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Thunderstorms associated with a passing shortwave will continue
to temporarily impact the D10 airports and Waco through the night.
Ceilings have been staying above 3000 ft but they will fall
overnight, likely below 1000 ft by sunrise Sunday. Ceilings will
slowly improve through the morning, becoming MVFR by mid-morning
and VFR by mid-afternoon. Ceilings will remain above 3000 ft
through Sunday evening but will fall again overnight Sunday along
with patchy fog.

Numerous thunderstorm outflows overnight will cause the wind to
be variable at times but the prevailing direction tonight through
Sunday will generally be east to southeast. Since wind speeds
will stay below 10 knots, a south flow traffic pattern should
remain.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  78  67  83  72 / 100  60  10  20  20
Waco                67  78  67  82  71 / 100  40  20  20   5
Paris               65  74  65  80  71 /  90  90  20  30  20
Denton              67  76  65  83  71 / 100  60  10  30  20
McKinney            67  75  65  82  71 / 100  80  10  30  20
Dallas              67  78  67  83  72 / 100  60  10  20  10
Terrell             67  77  66  83  71 / 100  70  20  20   5
Corsicana           68  80  68  85  72 / 100  50  20  20   5
Temple              66  79  67  83  72 / 100  40  20  10   5
Mineral Wells       64  77  66  86  71 /  90  20  10  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

$$