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000
FXUS65 KGGW 212312
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
512 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Strong winds and near critical fire weather concerns come in
on Monday.

2) Otherwise, a broad ridge pattern builds into the area this
week resulting in mostly dry and seasonable conditions.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

A much warmer day is in store ahead of the next quick moving cold
front tonight and associated low pressure system. Winds will be
switching direction to the west tonight, with high (80 percent)
confidence that wind gusts will reach or exceed 40 mph on Monday.
Very little precipitation accumulation, if any, will be associated
with this disturbance. The combo of wind and lack of
precipitation suggest near critical fire weather conditions, so a
Fire Weather Watch remains in place for much of the day Monday.
See fire weather section below for more details. A quieter pattern
quickly resumes on Tuesday with broad upper level ridging and no
major disturbances hinted at amongst ensembles through the rest of
the week.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

Confidence is high for temperatures, low precipitation amounts and
the general wind pattern through the extended period. With regard
to near critical fire weather conditions moving into red flag
criteria Monday, moderate confidence continues to exist. No
departures were made from the NBM at this time, but the focus will
be on the accuracy of wind and humidity forecast values through
Monday night.

-Zanker/Stoinskers


&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 2300Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR

DISCUSSION: A cold front is passing through the area this
evening bringing gusty west winds and an increase in mid and high
level clouds. There is a low (20%) chance for a rain shower along
the front at KSDY and KGDV from 03Z-09Z tonight. MVFR clouds will
begin to enter the area Monday evening from the northeast and
will start to impact KOLF and KSDY around 03Z-06Z.

LLWS: There is a (20%-30%) chance for Low Level Wind Shear
tonight across the terminals after the fronts passage from roughly
sundown through sunup tonight. It remains to be seen whether wind
will become light enough at the surface for this to manifest
though and confidence is low.

SFC WIND: West at 10 to 20 kts gust 25 this evening. Reducing
after midnight. Then becoming northwest at 20 to 30 kts gust 40
after sunup Monday into the afternoon hours. Reducing to 10 to 20
gust 30 kts Monday evening.

GAH


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Southern
Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties-The Little Rockies-The
Lower Missouri River Breaks including the Charles M Russell
National Wildlife Refuge.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for
Dawson/McCone/Prairie/Richland/Wibaux Counties-Southern
Petroleum and Southern Garfield Counties.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow