Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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785 FXUS63 KGID 091129 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 629 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Highs today in the mid 60s to low 70s with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible (15-30%) along/north of I-80. - Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (30-65%) Saturday night through the middle of next week. - Highs in the 70s to low 80s this weekend and into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Today and Tonight... Highs today will be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Winds will be breezy during the day, with northerly winds gusting 20 to 25 mph. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible (15-30%) this afternoon and evening for areas mainly along and north of Interstate 80. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to decrease in coverage around sunset with the loss of daytime heating, however a few showers/storms may linger till around midnight. Most areas are expected to remain dry, with areas that do receive rain seeing accumulations generally under 0.10 inches. Lows tonight will be in the mid 40s. Friday and Saturday... The upper level low which has meandered over the Plains over the past few days will become split in two on Friday. Part of the low will continue to progress east as it gets picked up by a trough dipping over the Midwest, and the other part of the low will become cut-off over the southwestern U.S. This split will allow for northwest flow to build aloft along with a stretch of dry weather for the area. Highs on Friday will be in the low 70s with breezy northerly winds. Saturday will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Saturday night through Wednesday... As the cut-off low over the Desert southwest rejoins the broader jetstream, chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the area. Saturday night will see precipitation chances increase from west to east across the area. The highest precipitation chances in this forecast period are during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday 30% (north) to 65% (south). The previously cut-off low will move off to the east Monday night, with chances for showers/storms coming to an end overnight. Severe weather is not expected this weekend due to weak instability and shear. An approaching trough over the Rockies will bring additional chances (25-50%) for scattered showers/storms to the area through the middle of next week. Model confidence begins to decrease at the end of this forecast period, with the 00z GFS and ECMWF disagreeing on the timing and strength of this approaching trough. Highs Sunday through the middle of next week will be slightly above normal (upper 60s to low 70s), with highs each day in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period. There is a low chance (10%) of MVFR CIGS this morning, but generally clouds that filter through should remain at or above 6k ft AGL during the period, potentially as low as 4k ft AGL overnight tonight. Winds will be out of the north to northwest through the period, starting at 8-10 kts then increasing to 12-15 kts by 16Z. Winds will diminish to 6-8 kts this evening and overnight. There is a low chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the TAF sites this afternoon and early evening, but chances are low enough (~15%) that a mention in the TAF was not warranted at this time. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Davis AVIATION...Hickford