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000
FXUS63 KGLD 180435
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1035 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures are anticipated over the next few
  days.

- Winter weather may return to portions of the area Friday
  night into Saturday, when rain could mix with, or transition
  to, wet snow. Light snow accumulation is possible (mainly on
  grassy and elevated surfaces). Significant impacts are not
  anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A rather low confidence forecast tonight for thunderstorms
chances in southwest Nebraska. Surface front will be entering
northwest corner of the forecast area between 00-03z. Ahead of
the front, a modest low level south-southeasterly jet will
develop, around 35 kts. Isentropic lift on the 305K surface will
be maximized on the nose of the jet in southwest Nebraska. The
gradient is steep, however, with little to no isentropic lift
along the Kansas-Nebraska border, but increasing rapidly into
west central Nebraska where storms are more likely. However,
cannot rule out a few storms further south through about 06z,
which is when isentropic lift quickly shuts off with westerly
winds behind the front. If storms develop, cannot rule out some
brief gusty winds and perhaps some hail with limited elevated
instability. Otherwise, gusty north winds behind the front will
occur through the night for the entire area. There may be some
isolated light rain showers as well. Low temperatures will be
mainly in the 30s.

For Thursday, a few isolated rain or snow showers will be
possible in northeast Colorado in the morning, otherwise will
see gradual clearing through the afternoon with highs in the
50s. Thursday night will see a chance for light rain and snow
showers with a weak disturbance coming out of Colorado after
06z. Any measurable snow should stay well north of the area with
only a few hundredths of precipitation at most. Lows will be in
the 30s.

On Friday, a shortwave trough will dig into the central plains
with a developing northwest flow. This system will keep shower
chances going through the day in Colorado and far northwest part
of the area, but then overspreading the remainder of the area
Friday night as the main disturbance moves in and low level
upslope winds develop. Looking at light snow accumulations
possible Friday night of less than one inch, mainly north of
Interstate 70 and in Colorado. Highs on Friday will be in the
30s and lows Friday night in the 30s.

Precipitation chances continue into Saturday morning with rain
and snow with additional shortwave energy coming through the
zonal flow, then gradually diminish Saturday afternoon and end
Saturday night. Expecting rain/snow in the morning, then mostly
rain in the afternoon with temperatures in the 40s with cloudy
skies. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 20s to lower
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

For Sunday, will see gradually clearing skies with shortwave
ridge building from the west. Temperatures will warm into the
60s to around 70 in northeast Colorado closer to the ridge. Lows
Sunday night will be around 40. May see some light showers
Sunday night as a disturbance moves through the northern plains,
but should be very light with little to no impacts.

On Monday the ridge flattens out with a shortwave trough moving
through the northern plains. It will send a cold front through
the area Monday afternoon. Ahead of the front, low humidity will
lead to elevated fire weather conditions, but winds appear to be
lacking for critical conditions. High temperatures will manage
to reach the 70s ahead of the front to perhaps the lower 80s
south of Interstate 70 with a later frontal passage. May see
some afternoon and evening showers/isolated thunderstorms along
the front in eastern or southern areas, highly dependent on
frontal timing. Instability forecasts are weak at this time, but
deep layer shear will be around 50 kts, suggesting perhaps a low
risk of severe storms. Lows Monday night will be in the 40s.

On Tuesday will see shortwave ridging return with dry and mild
conditions. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Ridge
axis moves out fairly quickly with a shortwave trough coming out
of Colorado in the afternoon and evening hours. May see a few
showers and isolated thunderstorms with that system, but
instability axis will be hugging the Front Range so not
expecting any severe storms at this time. Lows Tuesday night
will be in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1031 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

MVFR conditions anticipated overnight at both terminals with
ceilings around 1500-3000 ft. Conditions improve again towards
VFR in the morning, beginning around 14Z. A cold front moving
through the area has shifted winds out of the north-northeast,
with gusts approx. 30-40 knots continuing overnight. By
afternoon, the northerly winds will be around 10-15 knots
sustained before becoming light and veering towards the east
during the evening. Continued low confidence in showers
impacting the MCK terminal overnight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CC