Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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085 FXUS64 KHUN 021915 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 215 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Ridging to the east of the area is beginning to deteriorate as a weak shortwave in the MS Valley pushes east. For the remainder of the day, high clouds will begin to filter in from the west associated with the shortwave moving through the MS Valley. Dry conditions will persist through nightfall with the earliest rain chances arriving in NW AL after midnight. Rain and thunder chances will gradually increase from west to east after midnight with medium to high PoPs in place across the area by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 With the deterioration of mid level ridging, a more zonal flow pattern will allow for several shortwaves to ripple through the area through the duration of the short term and into the long term. By morning on Friday, the first of these shortwaves will be moving through the area. High (60-80%) rain chances will be present in NW AL and progress east throughout the day. Best chances for rain and storms currently look to be Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoon. The atmosphere will be very saturated and favorable for efficient rainfall production with periods of heavy rainfall possible all weekend. Friday there is a marginal risk (1/4) for excessive rainfall, however with QPF amounts through the weekend continuing to remain below an inch, the overall flooding threat is low. Areas that experience periods of heavy rainfall could see some brief nuisance flooding due to slow moving storms. Aside from heavy rainfall, frequent lightning from elevated thunderstorms will be the only other threat to outdoor activities this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024 Warm and active weather will continue through the long term period. By Sunday, another shortwave will track over the area, resulting in medium chances (50-60%) for showers and storms especially during the afternoon hours. This activity will likely linger through at least the early part of Monday, especially given the warm sectored airmass in place. Broad upper ridging and west/southwesterly flow aloft will keep low chances for rain and thunder in the forecast through the remainder of the long term forecast, primarily north of the TN River where better synoptic forcing will be in place. H85 temps will rise through the work week as strong southwesterly flow continues to support a warming trend, with highs could reach the 90 degree mark by on Wednesday. Overnight lows will warm each night too, beginning in the mid 60s Sunday night rising to the lower 70s Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Will definitely feel more like summer by the middle of the week! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR conditions will be present for the first half of the TAF period at both terminals. Late tonight, rain will move in from the west bringing prolonged periods of SHRA and MVFR ceilings. MVFR conditions will likely develop at MSL first early tomorrow morning and then continue to HSV later in the morning. Confidence in prolonged MVFR conditions is high, however confidence in onset timing in currently low. Additional TAF issuances will refine onset timing of MVFR ceilings. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....RAD LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...RAD