298
FXUS64 KHUN 272320
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
620 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

No weather impacts expected tonight as the region will be largely
under the influence of an East Coast ridge, while the effects of
a West CONUS/High Plains trough and its associated synoptic
boundary remain far to our west. Winds will tend to remain
elevated overnight, but gustiness may diminish a bit, especially
in southern/western portions of the area. Low temperatures will
tend to remain elevated due partly to the winds, with lows just
down into the low/mid 60s at most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday Night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The East Coast high pressure system will continue to exert
influence over the region on Sunday, while the western trough
makes gradual advance eastward into the Plains. A robust pressure
gradient will be maintained across the TN Valley, with gusty winds
at times continuing, although wind speeds may be a bit lower than
today.

Late Sunday into Monday, the partially closed Great Plains trough
will move northeastward and begin to phase with a trough
advancing into the Pac NW and SW Canada. As it does, the trailing
frontal boundary will edge eastward into the western TN Valley
region. A band of rain with embedded thunderstorms ahead of the
front may begin to move into western locations as early as Monday
morning, but more likely in the afternoon. However, mid/upper
dynamics will weaken as the front traverses the region, limiting
support for thunderstorm organization. Likewise, instability will
be limited with largely moist-adiabatic profiles and "skinny"
vertical CAPE. Thus, it looks as though just general thunderstorm
activity is favored at this time. Rainfall and any thunderstorm
activity could reach a peak during the evening as the front begins
to push into the area, with good chances for rain and a few
thunderstorms continuing overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Minor Update (200 PM):

Showers and storms will come to an end from west to east across
the area early Tuesday as the shortwave lifts northeast and upper
ridging begins to push east across the Deep South.
South/southwesterly flow will keep a more tropical airmass in
place through the remainder of the work week, and daily highs in
the low to mid 80s are forecast with overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s. A series of weaker disturbances will be embedded within
the upper ridge, and will result in daily low chances (20-30%) for
showers and thunderstorms. Models show an upper low tracking over
the northern Plains heading into the weekend, and a cold front
will push south through the Midwest and into the mid MS River
Valley. This system will result in an increase in shower/storm
chances (40-50%) on Friday, with 20-40% chances continuing into
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Biggest impact to the TAFs will remain the winds. Occasional gusts
over 20 kts will continue for an hour or two, and then remain near
10 kts overnight. Gusts pick back up in the morning and will shift
to southeasterly tomorrow afternoon with gusts 20-25 kts. A few
hours of MVFR ceilings are possible tomorrow morning from 14-16Z
(20-30% chance) but confidence was too low to include at this
time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KDW
SHORT TERM....KDW
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...30