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000
FXUS64 KHUN 190216
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
916 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

An area of sfc low pressure is moving into the OH River Valley,
bringing a cold front down through the deep south into portions of
Texas. Sfc high pressure off the east coast of FL is allowing
southerly flow to continue, bringing increased moisture to
TN Valley. Ahead of the cold front, low-medium shower/storm
chances (30-60%) will be possible through the overnight hours.
However, chances of strong storms remain low due to decreasing sfc
CAPE as we move into the overnight to early morning hours. Low
level lapse rates will also continue to struggle to reach values
over 5-6 C/km. Elevated instability, however, remains above 1000
J/kg coupled with mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km. In
addition to this, effective bulk shear will increase to around
20-30 kts. PWATs are also in the 1.4-1.5" range, which exceeds the
90th percentile sounding climatology per BMX. Therefore, any
strong storm that may develop will be capable of producing gusty
to damaging winds, hail, lightning, and heavy rainfall. Otherwise,
low temperatures are forecast to remain in the low to mid 60s
under scattered to broken cloud cover.

The cold front is forecast to reach our area in the morning
hours. More on that in the short-term section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Showers and storms will continue slowly pushing southeast through
the area tomorrow morning as the front continues to dig across the
Southeast. Depending on the timing, a few isolated strong/severe
storms could develop across southeast portions of the area late
tomorrow morning into the afternoon aided by diurnal heating. As
the front clears the area, expect cooler northwesterly flow and
dry conditions by tomorrow night. Overnight lows will fall into
the low to mid 50s, and will continue to cool on Saturday with
highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s. As zonal flow takes over aloft,
will keep low to medium chances (20-60%) for showers and storms
in the forecast through Sunday afternoon, with the best chances
south of the TN River Sunday morning and afternoon. Highs on
Sunday will be quite cool, with afternoon temps struggling to
reach above the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 113 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Monday will be dry but still cool with highs in the 60s as high
pressure at the surface overspreads the OH and TN valleys. Dry
weather should last through Tuesday with temperatures warming
back into the 70s. On Wednesday, upper troughing resulting from a
strong upper low in Quebec and Ontario, will bring a cold front
south through the TN valley. At this point, leaning toward a dry
forecast, but it is borderline and may need further changes later
if the models come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

VFR conditions continue at both KMSL and KHSV for now. Showers/storms
are forecast to return to the area later this evening into the
overnight hours, bringing MVFR to IFR conditions as a result of
lowered cloud ceilings and visibilities. Low ceilings and
subsequent MVFR/IFR conditions are forecast to remain in place
through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...HC