618
FXUS63 KICT 031943
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
243 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms moving east-southeast across
  the region tonight through early Saturday.

- Additional rain/embedded thunderstorm chances over mainly southern
  and southeast Kansas later Saturday night through Sunday.

- Severe weather potential Monday afternoon-night.

- Overall fairly quiet weather expected after Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

A strong cold front will drive southeast through the region late
tonight through Saturday morning, trailing from potent shortwave
energy traversing the northern half of the CONUS. The strong
frontal forcing in concert with returning low-level
moisture/instability should support a few clusters of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms marching east-southeast across the region
overnight through early Saturday. The combination steep mid-level
lapse rates, modest instability and modest effective deep layer
shear will support a lower-end severe weather threat, especially
generally northwest of the KS Turnpike corridor before about 3 AM.
Thinking the strongest activity will be capable of dime to half-
dollar size hail, 50-65 mph winds , and locally heavy rainfall.
Since this activity will likely be fairly progressive, widespread
heavy rainfall appears unlikely, although patchy amounts up to
around one inch are possible, especially northwest of the KS
Turnpike.

Rain/storm chances will gradually exit southeast Kansas to the east
Saturday morning. It will feel rather chilly Saturday morning in
wake of this front, given the breezy/gusty north winds and early
morning temperatures in the 40s-50s. Breezy north winds and below
average temperatures will prevail through the rest of Saturday, with
highs reaching the 60s for most.

Another round of rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected later
Saturday night through Sunday, as an upper trough traverses the
Southern Plains. Latest model consensus keeps the greatest rain
chances over mainly southern to southeast Kansas with this next
system. The greatest threat for heavy rainfall looks to be from near
the KS/OK border on south. The severe weather threat looks minimal
over Kansas given poor lapse rates and marginal instability,
although perhaps small hail may accompany the strongest activity.

Our attention then turns to the potential for scattered to numerous
thunderstorms Monday afternoon-night across the region, as a
potent/deep shortwave trough and attendant dryline approach from the
west, amidst an increasingly moist/unstable airmass across the
Central and Southern Plains. The thermodynamic and kinematic
environments favor severe thunderstorms, some of which could produce
"higher-end" severe weather in the form of very large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes, given the anomalous combination of
buoyancy/shear. However, there remains uncertainty on the timing,
amplitude, and placement of various synoptic features, which will
play a vital role in the potential magnitude of severe weather
Monday afternoon-night. Stay tuned as we continue to refine forecast
details the next few days.

After Monday night, the large-scale synoptic pattern favors mostly
quiet weather across the Kansas region through at least the end of
next week, with a gradual cooling trend through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Returning low-level moisture will support continued MVFR
ceilings through the afternoon, possibly scattering out and/or
lifting for a time this evening, before filling back in
overnight. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will blast south
across the region later tonight through Saturday morning, with
gusty north winds and MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings in its wake.
A line or broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving east-
southeast will likely accompany this frontal zone overnight into
early Saturday. Dime to quarter size hail and 50-60 mph winds
may accompany the strongest activity, especially across central
Kansas before 3 AM. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK