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000
FXUS63 KICT 151157
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
657 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Unseasonably warm through Wednesday. Below average temperatures
  from late week through the weekend.

* Strong/gusty winds fueling very high to extreme grassfire danger
  across mainly central and south-central Kansas today and Tuesday.

* Thunderstorm chances and associated severe thunderstorm
  potential this evening-tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Our primary concern surrounds thunderstorm chances and potential
severe weather this evening-tonight. Most model solutions are rather
meager with dryline convergence this evening over western Kansas,
likely due to stronger large-scale upper forcing lagging back to the
west. This factor, along with a stout EML across the region, should
support only sparse/isolated thunderstorm development at best in
vicinity of the dryline between 5-11pm, generally along/west of the
Highway 14 corridor. If this sparse/isolated activity is able to
form and sustain itself off the dryline, the thermodynamic and
kinematic environment will support supercells capable of all severe
hazards (very large hail, damaging winds, a few tornadoes).

Thereafter, from roughly 11pm through the rest of the night,
stronger large-scale forcing and an associated Pacific frontal zone
is expected to surge east across the region. This increased forcing
should support a modest uptick in thunderstorm coverage across
generally the eastern half of Kansas. The strong forcing in concert
with deep layer shear vectors becoming oriented more parallel to the
frontal zone should support a transition to primarily mixed and/or
linear convective mode, with severe hazards gradually transitioning
to primarily damaging winds and marginal hail, although an isolated
tornado threat may still exist given the strong low-level shear.

Apart from the thunderstorm threat, anomalously strong/deep low
pressure will support stout/gusty south winds this afternoon-
tonight, with strong/gusty southwest-westerly winds Tuesday. A wind
advisory will be issued for this afternoon-evening across portions
of central and south-central Kansas, with another wind advisory
possible needed for Tuesday as well, but will let later shifts
assess this further.

As we look ahead, deepening northern CONUS upper troughing and an
associated cold frontal passage will support a return to below
average temperatures Thursday-Thursday night and persisting through
next weekend. Daytime readings in the 50s-60s are likely, with
overnight lows in the 30s-40s. Portions of central and north-central
Kansas could be flirting with overnight temperatures in the low-mid
30s Thursday night through Saturday night...a heads up for those
with sensitive outdoor vegetation.

Furthermore, could be looking at periodic shower/thunderstorm
chances Wednesday night through Thursday night, and then again
Friday night-Saturday, as a pair of mid-level baroclinic zones
traverse Mid-America. Wednesday night-Thursday chances could be
interesting, as the combination of elevated instability and
effective deep layer shear amidst a strong mid-level thermal
gradient may support primarily elevated strong to marginally severe
storms. Right now only the NAM and ECMWF are depicting this
scenario, with the GFS and Canadian not nearly as bullish. Stay
tuned for later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 648 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Concerns:

1) IFR conditions briefly this AM
2) Strong winds this afternoon-tonight
3) Thunderstorm potential this eve-tonight
4) MVFR conditions overnight

Surging low level moisture will reduce ceilings and visibilities
this morning briefly on the edge of its push based on upstream
observation. It was decided to use tempo groups for a few hours
to account for it. A strengthening low pressure system is going
to lead to an increase in southerly wind speeds with sustained
values of 20 to 25kts and gusts near 40kts especially this
afternoon into the overnight hours. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight; the exact
coverage is uncertain thus a PROB30 seemed to be the best
approach for now. A significant severe storm could impact RSL
and GBD, but there is uncertainty in where it will develop and
its respective track. Low level moisture will stay in place
leading to MVFR conditions through the overnight period. Changes
are anticipated to this forecast given some uncertainty with
this system.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

For today and Tuesday, very high to extreme grassland fire danger is
probable across portions of central, north-central, and south-
central Kansas, due to continued well above average temperatures and
strong/gusty south to southwest winds. Today`s threat should remain
below critical thresholds due to higher boundary layer moisture and
associated higher humidity. Tuesday`s threat should be higher due to
lower humidity and somewhat stronger winds. A Red Flag warning may
be needed Tuesday for mainly Reno, Rice, Ellsworth, Lincoln, Russell
and Barton counties, given the extreme grassland fire danger
forecast for those locations. Stay tuned.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...ADK