Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 152337
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Tonight-Monday:
Anticipate clouds over eastern sections will rapidly move east and
or dissipate around sunset. Surface ridge moves across the area
tonight through Monday with limited mixing and basically clear
skies. Near record lows possible again tonight. Temperatures
recover a bit more on Monday aided by more sunshine.

Tuesday:
Tuesday remains problematic as warm from develops just south of
the forecast area and lifts north while dryline approaches the
western edge of forecast area. Stratus and possibly fog are
expected north of the warm front. Latest models shift most
probable area for fog a bit north, roughly from western Reno
county to Arkansas City. Strong southwest flow at 850MB develops
during the day, but models continue to show a variety of
evolutions and timing of the warm front and dryline during the
day, which would have big impacts on wind, temperatures and fire
danger. Warmest temperatures in the southwest and coolest in the
far north still looks reasonable.

Tuesday night-Wednesday:
Cold front moves through Tuesday night, with outside chance for
post frontal precipitation in far northern sections. Cooler
temperatures return on Wednesday, but dry air and downslope
component will help offset cold air advection. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Upper ridge moves through on Thursday with next system
approaching on Friday and Saturday. Good south fetch should allow
moisture to return and provide a good chance for rain over the
entire area. Chances should ramp up from west to east on Friday,
with best chances Friday night and then lingering into Saturday.
Temperatures will remain below normal given the extensive clouds
and precipitation. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Low clouds over eastern Kansas will gradually move eastward
tonight and northwest winds will diminish. VFR conditions will
prevail for all TAF sites for the next 24hrs as surface high
pressure builds into the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Increasing south winds will lead to very high GFDI values over most
areas on both Tuesday and Wednesday. High uncertainty whether
extreme values could be reached on Tuesday due to uncertainty on
wind speeds. Models continue to show significant discrepancies in
the orientation of the warm front and the amount of mixing during
the day. If winds are more than about 5 kts higher than forecast,
red flag criteria will likely be met in southwest part of forecast
area. -Howerton

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

Temperature Records:

Record Lows (April 16th):

Wichita: 29 In 1953
Salina:  20 In 1953
Chanute: 24 In 1953
Russell: 21 In 1951

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    24  61  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      22  59  41  81 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          21  60  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        24  60  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   24  62  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         19  58  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      20  59  39  79 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          20  58  38  78 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       20  59  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     25  59  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         25  57  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            25  57  40  78 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    25  58  42  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...PJH
CLIMATE...PJH



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