457
FXUS63 KICT 280801
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
301 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for additional strong/severe storms across the
  Flint Hills/southeast Kansas today with lingering areal and
  river flooding.

- Periodic chances for showers/storms for mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

After a very busy Saturday, trailing stratiform rain/thunder
continues to affect southeast Kansas early this morning with
mainly high water issues now. Increasing convergence along the
Pacific cold front merger into the dry-line has resulted in a
last gasp for a thin/marginally strong convective line of
storms moving into the Wichita metro as of 08z where a moderate
cape axis resides. Otherwise, best chances for renewed diurnal
storms will exist ahead of the front this afternoon across
southeast Kansas where instability/shear combo will support a
risk for some marginally severe hail and wind. A few post-
frontal showers will also be possible under the upper trof,
mainly across central Kansas. Dry and seasonably mild for Monday
before the pattern turns a bit more active again for the mid-
week periods. Moisture will return ahead of the next upper trof
moving across the northern Plains by Monday night with the
associated cold front moving into the area on Tuesday. An upper
trof will try and settle southward across the northern and
central Rockies from Wednesday into Thursday with a surface
front wavering across the area. Relatively weaker perturbations
rippling thru the mean flow ahead of the approaching northern
Rockies upper trof look to provide lift along the increasingly
moist unstable frontal boundary. A transition to cooler weather
behind a cold front later in the week as the main upper trof
progresses eastward across mid-America.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Convection across the area has shifted mainly points east of ICT.
Wind shift was found past RSL and GBD, advancing east and pushing
convection to the eastern half of the forecast area. This will still
result in TSRA is expected to continue for a few more hours at CNU.

Minimal potential for TSRA at HUT and ICT. MVFR to potentially IFR
cigs are expected to continue towards daybreak at RSL, SLN, and GBD
with highest confidence at SLN. Brief lowered vsbys are also
possible but confidence is not as high. Southerly winds will
gradually become northerlConvection across the area has shifted
mainly points east of ICT. Wind shift was found past RSL and GBD,
advancing east and pushing convection to the eastern half of the
forecast area. This will still result in TSRA is expected to
continue for a few more hours at CNU.

Minimal potential for TSRA at HUT and ICT. MVFR to potentially
IFR cigs are expected to continue towards daybreak at RSL, SLN,
and GBD with highest confidence at SLN. Brief lowered vsbys are
also possible but confidence is not as high. Southerly winds
will gradually become northerly to westerly with gusts to 25kts
returning Sunday afternoon.y to westerly with gusts to 25kts
returning Sunday afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ069>072-
093>096-098>100.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...OTR