Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 212015
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Water vapor imagery shows a closed low spinning over southern CA
with another upper impulse over far eastern SD/southwest MN. At
the surface, high pressure is situated over far eastern KS/eastern
OK.

A few showers and storms will be possible over the high Plains
of western KS tonight as mid level moisture transport increases
as 850-700mb flow veers. We will get back to hot and muggy
conditions by Tue was the surface high shifts east, allowing
higher dewpoints to work back into the area. Even though we will
be unstable Tue afternoon, lack of surface focus will limit storm
chances.

Upper energy to our west is expected to lift into the central and
northern Rockies Tue night into Wed with very rich low level
moisture remaining in place. Upper flow is expected to remain
very weak over the central/southern Plains. There is some model
agreement in tracking a weak impulse out of the lower Mississippi
Valley and into eastern OK for Wed into Wed evening. In addition,
the GFS is trying to bring an additional weak upper wave out of
southwest TX and across western OK Wed night into Thu. So while
confidence is high that we will not see widespread storms for the
next few days, can`t rule out iso-sct activity over mainly
southeast KS Wed afternoon through Thu night, where the highest
instability will coincide with minimal capping.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

We look to stay in a more summer-like pattern through these
extend periods.

GFS and ECMWF agree on digging another upper trough over the
western CONUS Fri into Sat which will keep the upper ridging over
the Rockies. At the same time, additional shortwave energy is
expected to track out of southern Canada and into the western
Great Lakes region by Sat afternoon. Once again, the chances for
widespread organized convection appears low, due to weak upper
flow and lack of surface focus. However, with extreme instability
and minimal capping, especially over se KS, any weak upper
impulse will likely result in iso-sct showers and storms. Will
have to keep an eye on the tropical circulation both the GFS and
ECMWF eventually track northwest out of Gulf toward the start of
next week, as it may have the potential to bring some rain to far
southeast KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

VFR tentatively forecast at all sites throughout the period. Low
clouds/fog continue to dissipate, and expect only some residual
cumulus lingering at start of forecast. Winds will be light and
variable for most sites as surface ridge moves across the area.
Return flow develops in earnest overnight and increases Tuesday
morning. Some potential for fog and/or stratus around daybreak.
Models are not clear cut on this potential, so confidence is not
that high. At this point only included few015. -Howerton


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  87  66  89 /   0  10   0  10
Hutchinson      63  88  65  88 /   0  10   0  10
Newton          62  87  65  88 /   0  10   0  10
ElDorado        62  87  65  87 /   0  10   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   63  87  65  88 /   0  10   0  20
Russell         62  88  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
Great Bend      62  87  64  87 /  10  10  10  10
Salina          63  89  66  90 /  10  10   0  10
McPherson       63  88  65  89 /  10  10   0  10
Coffeyville     61  87  65  87 /   0   0   0  20
Chanute         60  86  64  87 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            60  86  64  87 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    60  87  65  88 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH



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